Please find the quantitative analysis report for VCR based on Wyckoff Volume-Price principles.

VCR (Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF) Quantitative Analysis Report
Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Date: 2026-02-25

1. Trend Analysis & Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-02-24, the underlying security VCR has an opening price of 380.37, a closing price of 384.97, a 5-day moving average (MA) of 384.69, a 10-day MA of 386.15, a 20-day MA of 392.45, a daily gain/loss of 1.48%, a weekly gain/loss of 0.37%, a monthly gain/loss of -3.56%, a quarterly gain/loss of -2.27%, and a year-to-date gain/loss of -2.27%.

VCR Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
VCR Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages

Based on the relationship between price and moving averages, as well as the evolution of price highs/lows, the current market is in a clear downtrend, potentially transitioning from a Distribution phase to Markdown or even Panic.

  • • Moving Average Alignment and Crossovers:
    • • At the beginning of the observation period (2025-12-26), the price was above short-term MAs (MA_5D, MA_10D) but still below the long-term MA (MA_60D), showing a pattern of weak rebound.
    • • In early January 2026, the price launched a rapid rally, successfully breaking above all MAs to form a brief bullish alignment (MA_5D > MA_10D > MA_20D > MA_60D), with the peak occurring on January 12th (414.28).
    • • However, following the mid-January peak, the price reversed into a decline. By the report's end date (2026-02-24), the price (384.97) has been consistently below all major moving averages (MA_5D: 384.69, MA_10D: 386.15, MA_60D: 397.14), and the MAs exhibit a bearish alignment (MA_5D < MA_10D < MA_20D < MA_60D), confirming the downtrend.
    • • Key Crossover Signal: The price confirmed a breakdown below the long-term MA_60D on January 20th (a daily loss of -2.63%), which is a strong bearish signal.
  • • Price Action & Market Phase Inference:
    • • Accumulation and Markup: This occurred in early January 2026. The price rapidly surged from the late December low of 393.92, accompanied by significantly increased volume (e.g., on Jan 8th and 9th), consistent with the characteristic of "demand entering to drive the rally."
    • • Distribution: The core identification period is from January 12th to 16th, 2026. After reaching a new all-time high (414.28), the price showed high-volume stalling/decline (detailed in the volume-price analysis below). Combined with historical ranking data, the 7-day/14-day Parkinson Volatility Ratios reached their 7th and 9th highest levels in nearly a decade on January 9th and 12th, respectively, while the high price and closing price also hit record highs. This indicates market sentiment and prices reached extreme levels, providing ample opportunity for large-scale distribution by institutional players in this zone.
    • • Markdown and Panic: Since breaking below MA_60D on January 20th, the market entered the markdown phase. Notably, high-volume sharp declines occurred on February 5th (-2.24%), February 12th (-1.59%), and February 23rd (-2.38%). These are characteristic of panic selling, indicating a massive influx of supply and acceleration of the downtrend.

2. Volume-Price Relationship & Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-02-24, the underlying security VCR has an opening price of 380.37, a closing price of 384.97, a volume of 37,460, a daily gain/loss of 1.48%, a 7-day average volume of 49,982.43, and a 7-day volume ratio of 0.75.

VCR Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
VCR Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis

Volume-price analysis clearly reveals the inflection points in supply-demand power, which is key to discerning market intent.

  • • Key Demand Days:
    • • 2026-01-08 / 2026-01-09: Prices rose +1.81% and +1.15% respectively, with volume significantly above the 7-day and 14-day averages (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 0.94). This is high-volume advancing, indicating strong demand dominated the market, driving prices to break previous highs.
  • • Key Supply Days & Reversal Signals:
    • • 2026-01-02: Price fell -0.58%, but volume surged 176.5% (VOLUME_GROWTH), with a VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO as high as 2.43. This is a classic case of high-volume decline (a potential Selling Climax?), providing the first warning that supply was emerging.
    • • 2026-01-12: The most significant supply signal day. Price reached a new all-time high of 414.28 but closed with a marginal loss of -0.07%, with volume 30% above the 7-day average (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO: 1.30). This is the classic high-volume stalling, clearly indicating that at record highs, supply completely overwhelmed demand, marking the climax of distribution activity.
    • • 2026-01-20 / 2026-02-05 / 2026-02-12: On these three trading days, prices fell sharply by -2.63%, -2.24%, and -1.59% respectively, with volumes significantly higher than the short-term average (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO were 1.32, 1.33, and 2.03 respectively). This is high-volume plunging, indicating persistent and strong supply during the decline, with no effective demand resistance.
  • • Signals of Insufficient Demand:
    • • During the decline from late January through February, most rebound days (e.g., Jan-21, +1.89%; Jan-27, +0.21%) had volumes below or near the 7-day average (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO < 1), constituting low-volume rallies. This proves demand is weak and unable to reverse the trend.

3. Volatility & Market Sentiment

As of 2026-02-24, the underlying security VCR has an opening price of 380.37, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.17, a 7-day intraday volatility volume ratio of 0.91, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.25, a 7-day historical volatility volume ratio of 1.11, and an RSI of 42.43.

VCR Historical Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
VCR Historical Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data

Volatility data reveals the evolution of market sentiment from optimistic exuberance to nervous panic.

  • • Volatility Levels and Changes:
    • • During the rally and distribution phase in early January, both short-term historical volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) and Parkinson volatility (PARKINSON_VOL_7D) rose significantly. Particularly on January 9th and 12th, the PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_14D reached 1.52 and 1.49, meaning short-term volatility far exceeded mid-term volatility, indicating market instability and acceleration. Historical rankings (7th and 9th highest in nearly a decade) confirm the extremeness and rarity of this volatility structure.
    • • Entering the February decline phase, especially in mid-to-late February, short-term volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) climbed again (e.g., reaching 0.244 on Feb-23) and remained consistently above the 14-day volatility (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D > 1.1). This indicates the decline is accompanied by rising fear, and expanding volatility is a typical feature of accelerating downtrends.
  • • RSI Sentiment Indicator:
    • • At the January 12th peak, the RSI_14 was 65.76, approaching but not entering the extreme overbought zone (>70). Combined with the high-volume stalling, this constituted a divergence warning for a potential top.
    • • As of February 24th, the RSI_14 is 42.43, in a neutral-to-weak zone, not reaching extreme oversold levels (<30). This means from a sentiment indicator perspective, the market has not yet reached an extreme state of panic selling. The decline may have further room or require more time for digestion.

4. Relative Strength & Momentum Performance

Momentum analysis confirms a comprehensive weakening across short to medium-term timeframes.

  • • Periodic Returns:
    • • Extremely Weak Short-Term Momentum: WTD_RETURN (0.37%) and MTD_RETURN (-3.56%) are both negative (considering February data), indicating substantial short-term downward pressure.
    • • Medium-Term Momentum Turns Negative: QTD_RETURN (-2.27%) and YTD (-2.27%) have both turned negative, indicating the uptrend since the beginning of 2026 has been completely reversed, with medium-term momentum now pointing downward.
    • • Long-Term Momentum Decay: TTM_36 (57.23%), TTM_24 (24.01%), TTM_12 (5.92%) show a clear decaying structure, indicating significant weakening in long-term upward momentum.
  • • Conclusion: Momentum indicators across all timeframes point to weakness, mutually validating the conclusion of a downtrend and bearish moving average alignment. The market lacks inherent momentum for an upward rebound.

5. Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior Identification

Based on Wyckoff events and volume-price analysis, the behavioral path of large investors is clearly discernible.

  • • Distribution: This is the most crucial smart money behavior during this period. Between January 8th and 16th, 2026, especially when the all-time high was reached on January 12th, the market exhibited "high-volume stalling." Historical rankings show both price and volatility were at extreme highs during this time, providing an excellent environment for large investors to distribute. It can be inferred that smart money completed large-scale selling at high prices amidst the frenzy of public (retail) buying.
  • • Shakeout & Creating Panic: The high-volume plunges on February 5th, 12th, and 23rd were accompanied by panic selling (supply). These declines breached multiple technical support levels, possibly aimed at shaking out weak holders (retail) who bought during and after the distribution zone, and testing the true strength of underlying demand.
  • • Current Phase: The market is in a supply-dominated downtrend. Despite signs of panic selling, the RSI is not at extreme oversold levels, and the decline lacks effective "high-volume stopping and rallying days" (signals of demand counterattack), indicating that large investors have not yet begun organized, large-scale accumulation. They may still be observing or creating panic to obtain lower entry costs.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis & Trading Signals

VCR Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart with Trading Signals
VCR Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart with Trading Signals
  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • R1: Zone around 400.00 - 402.00: Recent rebounds have been resisted multiple times in this zone (e.g., Feb-2, Feb-3). This area also coincides with MA_10D (386.15) and MA_20D (392.45), forming a strong near-term resistance.
    • • R2: Zone around 412.00 - 414.28: The upper boundary of the distribution zone formed in January 2026 and the all-time high, this is the core strong resistance level. Any upward rebound that fails to break above this zone with high volume should be considered a technical pullback.
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • S1: Zone around 380.00 - 383.50: The price briefly paused its decline in this zone in late February (lows on Feb-17, Feb-23), serving as the first line of near-term support.
    • • S2: 376.00: The intraday low on February 23rd. A breakdown below this level would open new downside space.
    • • S3: Zone around 370.00 (Potential): According to Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend wave, the 0.618 level is around 370, which may become a significant medium-term support.
  • • Synthesized Wyckoff Events & Trading Signals:
    • • Current Primary Signal: Bearish. Trend is down, moving averages are in bearish alignment, supply dominates the supply-demand relationship, and smart money shows no signs of accumulation after completing distribution.
    • • Operational Suggestions:
      1. 1. Bearish Position Holders: Consider raising the stop-loss level to the near-term resistance around 400. The target looks towards support S1 (380-383), with further targets at S2 (376) and below if breached.
      2. 2. Sidelined Observers / Potential Bottom Fishers: Strongly recommend maintaining a wait-and-see approach. Until clear "demand counterattack" signals appear (e.g., a high-volume, strong bullish day halting the decline at key support, or a powerful recovery following panic selling), one should not attempt to buy against the trend.
  • • Future Validation Points:
    1. 1. Signal to Invalidate the Bearish View: The price breaks and holds above resistance R1 (400-402) with high volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.5), especially recovering MA_20D, would indicate the downtrend may be slowing or entering a consolidation phase.
    2. 2. Potential Early Signal for Trend Reversal (Requires Close Monitoring): The appearance of a "high-volume stopping and rallying day" (single-day gain >2% with significantly increased volume) near key support levels S2 (376) or S3 (370). This may signal the end of panic selling and the beginning of tentative accumulation by smart money. This would be the first potential observation point for a future shift from bearish to bullish, but would still require subsequent confirmation via a low-volume pullback that holds above new lows.

Disclaimer: This report is based entirely on quantitative analysis and theoretical derivation using the provided historical data and does not constitute any specific investment advice. Financial markets carry significant risks. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should make independent judgments and bear the corresponding risks.

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