20260224 TRUMPUSDT Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

Okay, as a quantitative trading researcher specializing in the Wyckoff Method, I will write a comprehensive and in-depth quantitative analysis report for you based on the provided TRUMPUSDT data and historical ranking indicators.

TRUMPUSDT Wyckoff Volume-Price Analysis Report

Product Code: TRUMPUSDT
Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Time: 2026-02-25

1. Trend Analysis & Market Phase Identification

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset TRUMPUSDT has an open price of 3.31, a close price of 3.38, a 5-day moving average (MA_5D) of 3.43, a 10-day moving average (MA_10D) of 3.44, a 20-day moving average (MA_20D) of 3.44, a daily change of 2.03%, a weekly change of -2.29%, a monthly change of -20.63%, a quarterly change of -29.70%, and an annual change of -29.70%.

Based on the relationship between price and moving averages and price action, TRUMPUSDT experienced a complete downtrend during the analysis period and is currently likely in the panic and potential bottoming phase at the end of a bear market.

• • Moving Average Arrangement & Price Structure:
  • • Initial State (Late December 2025): Price (~4.9) was below all major moving averages (MA_5D ~5.0 to MA_60D ~6.4), showing a standard bearish alignment, confirming a downtrend.
  • • Bear Market Rally (Early January 2026): From January 2nd to January 5th, the price staged a strong rebound, rising from 4.89 to 5.62, a gain of nearly 15%. During this period, MA_5D briefly crossed above MA_20D (e.g., on January 4th), forming a short-term golden cross. However, after hitting a high of 5.66 on January 6th, the price quickly retreated, failing to effectively break through the resistance of longer-term moving averages like MA_30D and MA_60D. This rebound high became a significant supply zone (distribution area) later on.
  • • Trend Resumption & Accelerated Decline (Mid-January to February): After the rally ended, the price was suppressed again by all moving averages and continued to make new lows. By February 24th, the price closed at 3.375, far below all moving averages (MA_5D: 3.43, MA_60D: 4.49). The bearish alignment was extremely steep, indicating a strong and accelerating downtrend.
• • Inferred Wyckoff Market Phase:
  1. 1. Distribution Phase: The rally in early January (4.89 → 5.66) was accompanied by a sharp surge in volume (e.g., volume of 8.67 million on Jan 3rd, 5.2 times the previous average, ranking high historically), but the price stagnated at relatively high levels and quickly fell. This aligns with the Wyckoff theory's characteristics of "Upthrust" or "Distribution": large investors distributing holdings at highs by taking advantage of market optimism, manifested as "high volume with price stagnation".
  2. 2. Markdown Phase: After distribution ended, the price entered the main declining wave. From late January to early February, the price declined steadily, breaking below key previous support levels (e.g., 4.8, 4.2).
  3. 3. Panic Selling Phase: On February 5th, the price plummeted -17.2%, and volume surged to 18.32 million (volume growth rate 426.9%, historical rank 5). This matches the characteristics of a Wyckoff "Panic Selling" event: significant price drop, surging volume, spiking volatility, typically marking the last concentrated release of downward momentum and extreme pessimism among retail investors. Subsequently, the price oscillated repeatedly in the 3.0-3.6 range, forming a Potential Support Zone, suggesting that funds began absorbing the panic selling.

2. Volume-Price Relationship & Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset TRUMPUSDT has an open price of 3.31, a close price of 3.38, volume of 3475342.19, a daily change of 2.03%, volume of 3475342.19, 7-day average volume of 3369824.52, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.03.

Volume-price analysis reveals a clear evolution from "demand attempting to enter" to "supply completely dominating", and then to "preliminary supply-demand balance after panic".

• • Demand-Driven Phase (Jan 2 - Jan 5): Price increases were accompanied by significantly higher volume. For example, on January 3rd, the price rose 4.18%, and the volume (8.67 million) relative to its 7-day average (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO) was as high as 5.25 (historical rank 6), a typical demand-driven rally.
• • Supply-Driven Phase (Jan 6 - Feb 4):
  • • Supply During the Rise: On January 6th, the price rose then fell sharply (-2.46%), with volume remaining high (4.72 million), indicating the rally encountered strong supply.
  • • Supply During the Decline: On January 31st, the price fell -4.73%, and volume surged to 9.39 million (VOLUME_GROWTH: 265.5%, historical rank 11), a typical "high-volume decline", indicating powerful supply-side force and heavy active selling pressure.
• • Panic & Preliminary Accumulation (Feb 5 - Present):
  • • Panic Selling (Feb 5): Extreme high-volume crash (-17.2%, volume 18.32 million). This is a signal of supply clearing out with overwhelming force.
  • • Demand Attempting to Enter (Feb 6 - Feb 14): After the panic, on February 6th, the price rebounded slightly (+2.27%), with volume still high at 9.84 million, indicating funds were accumulating at low levels. However, subsequent rebounds (e.g., Feb 13-14) did not see sustained volume expansion (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO generally below 1), showing insufficient follow-through demand, limiting the rebound's strength.
  • • Secondary Test by Supply (Feb 15 - Feb 24): The price oscillated in the 3.2-3.6 range, with volume significantly lower compared to the panic period. This indicates active selling (supply) is diminishing, and the market is entering a consolidation/testing phase with balanced forces. It's necessary to observe whether the next move is a "low-volume pullback" (healthy secondary test) or "another high-volume breakdown" (return of supply).

3. Volatility & Market Sentiment

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset TRUMPUSDT has an open price of 3.31, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.70, a 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 1.01, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.54, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 0.94, and an RSI of 37.25.

Volatility indicators and RSI together reveal extreme market sentiment and potential reversal signals.

• • Volatility Extremes: During the panic selling on February 5th and the following days, short-term volatility spiked sharply relative to long-term volatility.
  • • HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D reached 2.26 on February 8th (historical rank 8), meaning 7-day volatility was 2.26 times the 60-day volatility.
  • • PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D reached 1.98 on February 6th (historical rank 8).
  • • Conclusion: Short-term volatility far exceeding the long-term average is quantitative evidence of market panic and trend acceleration, typically occurring near the end of major trends.
• • Oversold Condition: RSI_14 dropped to 18.01 on February 5th (historical rank 1, the most oversold in a decade), entering the extreme oversold zone. Although it rebounded somewhat afterward, it remained in the weak zone at 37.25 as of February 24th. Extreme oversold conditions combined with panic selling increase the probability of a technical rebound or a temporary market bottom.

4. Relative Strength & Momentum Performance

Momentum indicators have deteriorated across the board, confirming the asset is in a strong downtrend with no signs of strength in the short term.

• • All Period Returns are Deeply Negative: As of February 24th, YTD_RETURN is -29.70%, MTD_RETURN is -20.63%, and WTD_RETURN is -2.29%. This clearly shows that TRUMPUSDT has been under strong negative momentum in the short, medium, and year-to-date terms, with extremely weak market performance.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Integrating volume-price, volatility, and phase analysis, the operational intent of large participants can be inferred:

1. 1. Distribution in Early January: Smart money conducted large-scale distribution when the price rebounded to around 5.6, taking advantage of market optimism. Manifested as high volume, price stagnation, followed by a rapid decline.
2. 2. Panic Selling and Potential Accumulation in Early February: The massive long black candlestick on February 5th was the result of panic selling by retail investors and liquidations of leveraged positions (selling climax). Smart money likely conducted selective accumulation around these extreme price levels. Evidence: The next day (Feb 6th), the price did not make a new low and closed higher, with volume still massive (9.84 million), indicating funds were actively buying the panic selling.
3. 3. Current Wait-and-See & Testing: After the panic, the price entered a narrow range consolidation with shrinking volume. Smart money is observing market reactions, likely conducting a Secondary Test (ST), i.e., testing whether significant supply (selling) still exists near the panic lows. If the test occurs with shrinking volume and no new price lows, the accumulation hypothesis is strengthened.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis & Trading Signals

• • Key Resistance Levels:
  • • R1: 3.60 - 3.65 (upper bound of the recent consolidation range and highs on Feb 14th and 20th).
  • • R2: 4.20 - 4.25 (dense trading area from late Jan to early Feb and previous lows, now transformed into strong resistance).
  • • R3: 5.00 - 5.20 (core area of the distribution zone from the January rally, strongest resistance).
• • Key Support Levels:
  • • S1: 3.20 - 3.25 (lower bound of the recent consolidation range, lows on Feb 10th and 24th).
  • • S2: 3.00 - 3.05 (low area formed by the panic selling on February 6th, ultimate support).
  • • A break below S2 would find no clear technical support below, and the trend would continue.
• • Wyckoff Integrated Trading Signal:
  • • Primary Signal: Wait and observe, awaiting confirmation signals from the secondary test.
  • • Logic: The market just experienced Panic Selling (PS) and may be in the potential Automatic Rally (AR) followed by the Secondary Test (ST) phase. This is a key component of the Wyckoff Accumulation Model (SC).
• • Specific Operational Suggestions & Future Validation Points:
  • • Bullish Scenario (Successful Bottoming):
    • • Entry Signal: When the price retests the S1 (3.20-3.25) or S2 (3.00-3.05) zone again, showing clear signs of "volume contraction" (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO < 0.8) and "price rejection of lower levels" (long lower shadow or small positive close). This would be an ideal "Secondary Test" buying point.
    • • Stop Loss: Set below the test low (e.g., 3.15 or 2.95).
    • • Target: Initial target R1 (3.60-3.65), upon breaking through, next target R2 (4.20-4.25).
    • • Validation Point: Price increases should be accompanied by moderate volume expansion, indicating returning demand. Breaking R1 is best confirmed with increased volume.
  • • Bearish Scenario (Continuation Pattern/Downtrend Pause):
    • • Entry Signal: When the price rebounds near R1 (3.60-3.65), showing high volume with price stagnation or a long upper shadow, indicating the reappearance of supply.
    • • More Dangerous Signal: If the price effectively breaks below the S2 (3.00) support with a high-volume long black candlestick, it indicates the panic selling was not the endpoint, and the downtrend will continue.
    • • Stop Loss: Set above the resistance level (e.g., 3.70).
    • • Target: Upon breaking below S2, downside space opens, making targets difficult to predict.
  • • Core Caution: Current market sentiment is fragile. Any rebound without proper volume-price confirmation is unreliable. Before a clear Wyckoff buying structure (like a successful Secondary Test) forms, the focus should be on risk avoidance and waiting; avoid blindly buying the bottom.

Summary: After experiencing distribution in early January and panic selling in early February, TRUMPUSDT has now entered a critical bottoming/testing phase. Historical-level volume, volatility ratios, and oversold indicators show sentiment has reached extremes. Smart money may have conducted preliminary accumulation during the panic, but the market needs to confirm supply exhaustion and bottom validity through a successful "Secondary Test." Traders should patiently wait for the price to show specific signals of expanding demand at key support levels (3.20, 3.00). Before that, the market remains in a bear-dominated structure.

Disclaimer: This report/analysis is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness but makes no guarantees regarding accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks; invest cautiously. Any investment actions based on this report are taken at your own risk.

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