Quantitative Analysis Report: Product Code SLV
Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Time: Based on data as of 2026-02-25

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of February 24, 2026, for the underlying asset SLV, the opening price was 78.23, closing price was 79.08, 5-day moving average (MA) was 72.93, 10-day MA was 72.81, 20-day MA was 79.01, with a daily change of -1.85%, a weekly change of 19.15%, a monthly change of 4.83%, a quarterly change of 22.76%, and a yearly-to-date change of 22.76%.

SLV Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
SLV Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages

1.1 Moving Average Alignment and Trend Structure:

  • • Establishment and Termination of Bullish Alignment: From late December 2025 to late January 2026, SLV experienced explosive price appreciation (71.12 → 105.6). During this period, the price consistently traded above all moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D, MA_20D, MA_30D, MA_60D), forming a standard bullish alignment. The steep slope of the short-term MAs indicated a strong uptrend.
  • • Trend Reversal and Death Cross: A historic plunge of -28.54% on January 30, 2026, caused the price to break below all short-term MAs in a single day. Subsequently, MA_5D crossed below MA_10D and then MA_20D, forming a clear short-term "death cross" signal. By the end of the reporting period (2026-02-24), the price (79.08) managed to close just above MA_5D (72.932) and MA_10D (72.812), but remained below MA_20D (79.006) and MA_30D (80.221), indicating that the short-term rebound did not alter the deteriorating medium-term trend structure.

1.2 Inferred Market Phase (Based on Wyckoff Theory):

  • • (Dec 2025 - Mid/Late Jan 2026) Distribution Phase: The price accelerated to a peak in mid-to-late January (range 80-105). Combined with subsequent volume-price analysis (see Part 2), this aligns with Wyckoff "Distribution" characteristics: large investors distributing shares to the enthusiastic retail buying public.
  • • (2026-01-30) Panic/Selling Climax: The massive crash on January 30 (volume 510M, ranking first in nearly a decade) marked a "breakdown" following the completion of distribution, ushering in a panic phase triggering stop-losses and capitulatory selling.
  • • (Feb 2026 - Present) Secondary Test and Automatic Rally / Potential Re-accumulation Zone: The price oscillated widely between80 throughout February. Dips to the 66-70 zone were met with buying support, evidenced by multiple lower shadows on daily candles (e.g., 02-05, 02-13). Rebounds to the 78-80 zone met resistance and pulled back. This structure resembles the Wyckoff "Secondary Test" process, aimed at testing the support validity of the panic low (75.44) and shaking out remaining weak holders. The market is in a downtrend following distribution, seeking a new supply-demand equilibrium.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of February 24, 2026, for the underlying asset SLV, the opening price was 78.23, closing price was 79.08, volume was 55,375,703, daily change was -1.85%, 7-day average volume was 82,104,427.00, and 7-day volume ratio was 0.67.

SLV Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
SLV Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis

2.1 Key Day Analysis:

  • • High Volume but Stalled Rally (Supply Overwhelming Demand): On 2026-01-26, the price rose 5.84% to close at 98.34, but volume reached 393M (ranking 2nd in nearly a decade), presenting a "high-volume stall." The following day (01-27) saw further gains but with significantly diminished volume. This indicates massive supply (selling pressure) emerging at high price levels; while demand was strong, it showed signs of exhaustion—a classic distribution signal.
  • • Panic Selling (Supply Surge): On 2026-01-30, the price plummeted -28.54% with a record volume of 510M (ranking 1st in nearly a decade), with transaction value also ranking first. This is a typical Selling Climax, where supply exploded, but it also implies massive selling was fully absorbed.
  • • Rally Demand Verification: Multiple rebounds in February (e.g., +8.33% on 02-09, +7.90% on 02-20) were generally accompanied by volume levels below those of the panic day (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO mostly below 1.5). This suggests rallies were driven primarily by short covering or minor buying, lacking substantial new demand inflow, indicating low-quality rebounds.

2.2 Volume Anomaly Analysis:

  • • Historic High Volume: According to historical rankings, from late January to early February 2026, multiple volume-related metrics (MAX_7-day average volume, MAX_60-day average volume, MAX_VOLUME, etc.) hit near-decade highs or ranked near the top (e.g., VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO reached 6.47 on Jan 30, ranking 2nd). This confirms the extremity of market activity and the intensity of share transfer during this period.
  • • Volume Contraction: Entering mid-to-late February, volume contracted significantly (e.g., volume on 02-24 was 55.4M with VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO of only 0.67). Low volume at the lower end of the trading range may indicate temporary supply exhaustion; low volume at the upper end suggests insufficient demand and weak upward momentum.

Supply-Demand Conclusion: The dominant market force has completely shifted from demand dominance in January to supply dominance in February. Following the panic selling, supply has emerged during each subsequent rally (high-volume or low-volume rallies), while demand has only provided tentative support at key lower levels (e.g., 66-70), failing to mount a sustained, high-volume counteroffensive. The overall condition is supply exceeding demand.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of February 24, 2026, for the underlying asset SLV, the opening price was 78.23, 7-day intraday volatility was 0.40, 7-day intraday volatility ratio was 0.71, 7-day historical volatility was 0.84, 7-day historical volatility ratio was 0.59, and RSI was 53.04.

SLV Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
SLV Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data

3.1 Volatility Levels and Structure:

  • • Volatility Explosion: Short-term volatility spiked dramatically around the January 30 crash. HIS_VOLA_7D reached 2.75 on 02-05, and PARKINSON_VOL_7D reached 1.33 on 02-03, both at absolute highs within the data period.
  • • Abnormal Volatility Structure: Volatility ratio indicators (e.g., HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D) reached extreme values in late January/early February (e.g., 2.54 on Jan 30, ranking 1st in nearly a decade), indicating short-term volatility far exceeded long-term levels, placing the market in a state of extreme instability and panic.
  • • Volatility Convergence: By late February, all period volatilities had retreated significantly from their peaks (e.g., HIS_VOLA_7D fell to 0.84, PARKINSON_VOL_7D to 0.40), and volatility ratios normalized (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D at 0.67). This signals a calming of market sentiment from panic to low-volatility consolidation.

3.2 Overbought/Oversold Status (RSI):

  • • Extreme Overbought and Oversold: At the peak of the rally (2025-12-26), RSI_14 was as high as 85.64 (ranking 2nd in nearly a decade), indicating severe overbought conditions. After the crash (2026-02-02), RSI_14 quickly fell to 43.83, entering oversold territory.
  • • Current Status: As of 02-24, RSI_14 is 53.04, in a neutral-to-weak zone. This shows neither overbought selling pressure nor oversold rebound momentum, consistent with the price's range-bound consolidation.

Sentiment Conclusion: Market sentiment has undergone a complete cycle from "extreme greed" (high RSI, low-volatility rise) to "extreme panic" (high volatility ratios, crash), to "calm watchfulness" (volatility convergence, neutral RSI). Current sentiment indicators do not support the immediate launch of a trending market.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Strong but Impaired Medium/Long-Term Momentum: Despite the late-January crash, SLV's YTD return (22.76%) and QTD return (22.76%) remain positive, indicating its medium/long-term momentum remained strong overall over the past two months. The TTM_36 return of 314% suggests its long-term bullish backdrop remains intact.
  • • Short-Term Momentum Turns Negative: WTD_RETURN (weekly return) was negative multiple times in February, and MTD_RETURN (monthly return) for February is 4.83%, far lower than January's frenzied gains. This indicates short-term upward momentum has completely reversed, and the market has entered an adjustment or downward momentum phase.
  • • Momentum Validation: The weakening short-term momentum validates the conclusions of a "turning bearish trend" and "supply exceeding demand" from the volume-price analysis. The market needs time to digest prior gains and rebuild upward momentum.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Based on Wyckoff principles and the data analysis above, inferences regarding large investor behavior are as follows:

  1. 1. Distribution: Conclusion is clear. The "high-volume stall" in mid-to-late January (e.g., 01-26) is the classic action of large investors distributing shares to enthusiastic retail buyers at high prices. The historically high volume confirms the massive scale of distribution.
  2. 2. Inducing Panic/Shakeout: The "panic selling" on January 30 resulted from large capital actively or opportunistically driving down prices after distribution concluded, aiming to flush out remaining long positions and test market depth. The massive volume implies their selling was broadly absorbed, possibly by another batch of capital waiting to enter at lower levels.
  3. 3. Testing and Rebalancing: Within the February consolidation range, every rebound to the66-70 zone suggest some demand support exists at this level (possibly from long-term bulls or short covering), but the demand intensity is insufficient to drive an immediate reversal. Smart money is likely currently in a watchful stance or engaging in minor two-way trades, awaiting clearer signals.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

SLV Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart with Trading Signals
SLV Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart with Trading Signals

6.1 Key Price Levels:

  • • Strong Resistance Levels:
    • • R1: 79.00 - 80.70: Recent rebounds have repeatedly faced resistance in this area (02-23 high 80.695, 02-24 high 79.94), coinciding with the MA_20D and the upper boundary of the prior consolidation platform.
    • • R2: 87.00 - 92.00: The dense consolidation zone from late January, now acting as strong resistance.
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • S1: 72.00 - 73.00: Multiple dips in February found support and bounced in this area (02-09 low 72.55, 02-10 low 72.455), representing a recent balance point.
    • • S2: 66.00 - 67.50: The dense cluster of price lows in February (02-05 low 65.51, 02-06 close 70.19, 02-17 low 65.14), forming a crucial support platform following the panic crash. A high-volume breakdown below this zone would open new downside potential.
    • • S3: 75.44: The panic low from January 30, a significant psychological support level.

6.2 Integrated Trading Signals and Operational Recommendations:

  • • Primary View: Bearish/Weak Consolidation. The market is in a downtrend following distribution. Short-term rebounds lack strength, and supply dominates. Any rally should be viewed as an opportunity to test for renewed supply, not the start of a trend reversal.
  • • Operational Recommendations:
    • • Adopt a Wait-and-See or Cautious Short Bias: In the current trendless, consolidating market, the optimal strategy is to wait on the sidelines. Aggressive traders may consider initiating small trial short positions near Resistance R1 (79-80.7) if signs of weakness appear (e.g., long upper shadows, intraday stalling) or volume-price divergence signals emerge.
    • • Follow Key Breakdowns: If the price breaks below Support S2 (66-67.5) on high volume, it could be considered a signal for the downtrend to resume, allowing for follow-on short positions.
    • • Conditions for Reversal to Long (Not Yet Met): Conditions for long positions are not currently present. In the future, a sustained, high-volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.5) breakout and hold above Resistance R1 (80.7), coupled with low-volume pullbacks, would be necessary to consider a potential trend reversal to bullish.
  • • Risk Management:
    • • Short Position Stop-Loss: Place above 81.50 (above recent highs).
    • • Long Position (Potential) Stop-Loss: If a long signal emerges in the future, the stop-loss should be placed below the key support S2 (66).
  • • Future Validation Points:
    1. 1. Confirm Bearish View: Price exhibits "high-volume stall" or "high-volume decline" candlestick patterns again in the 79-80 resistance zone.
    2. 2. Invalidate Bearish View / Shift to Neutral: Price gaps up on the open with high volume, breaks above 80.7, and does not fill the gap intraday.
    3. 3. Confirm Accelerated Decline: Price closes below $66 on above-average volume (higher than recent average).

Disclaimer: This report presents a quantitative analysis based on the provided historical data. All conclusions are derived from model and data inferences and do not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets carry risks; investors should make independent judgments and exercise caution in their decisions.

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