20260224 POOL Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

Alright, received. As a quantitative trading researcher proficient in the Wyckoff Method, I will prepare a comprehensive and in-depth quantitative analysis report based on the provided POOL data and historical ranking metrics. All conclusions are derived from the data, strictly adhering to Wyckoff's principles of volume and price action.

POOL Quantitative Analysis Report (Based on the Wyckoff Method)

Product Code: POOL
Analysis Period: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Date: 2026-02-25

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset POOL has an opening price of 219.61, a closing price of 217.26, with moving averages: MA_5D 233.85, MA_10D 250.60, MA_20D 254.76. Price change: -0.57%, Weekly change: -14.95%, Monthly change: -14.49%, Quarterly change: -5.02%, Yearly change: -5.02%.

1. 1. Moving Average Alignment and Trend Direction:
   • • Overall Trend: From the start of the analysis period (2025-12-26) MA_60D (262.098) to the end date (2026-02-24) MA_60D (247.456), a continuous decline confirms the asset is in a long-term downtrend.
   • • Phased Rally and Reversal: In January 2026, a strong price rally occurred (from ~229 to ~272 in mid-February). During this period, MA_5D successively crossed above MA_20D and MA_60D, forming a brief "bullish rally" pattern. However, this rally trend was decisively reversed starting February 17.
   • • Current Alignment (2026-02-24): CLOSE (217.26) < MA_5D (233.854) < MA_20D (254.761) < MA_60D (247.456) < MA_30D (257.605). MA_5D has turned downward and is significantly below all medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating a typical resumption of the bearish alignment. The price is also far from the moving averages, showing characteristics of accelerated decline.
2. 2. Inferred Market Phase:
   • • 2026-01-02 to 2026-02-13: Can be defined as a weak rally (or a Secondary Rally within a Distribution process). The price rallied with support from volume (see Section 2) and volatility (see Section 3), but encountered strong resistance near the previous high zone (~272).
   • • 2026-02-17 to Present: The market has entered a clear "Markdown" phase, with "Panic Selling" occurring on February 19. On February 19, the price gapped down at the open, plummeting -14.48% for the day. Volume surged to 3.58 million shares, marking the fourth-highest single-day volume in nearly a decade (historical ranking data), signaling a collapse in market sentiment. Subsequent trading days saw the price oscillating narrowly at lower levels, with volume receding from the extreme high, consistent with characteristics of an Automatic Rally or Secondary Test following panic selling.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset POOL has an opening price of 219.61, a closing price of 217.26, volume 957,530, price change -0.57%, volume 957,530, 7-day average volume 1,312,917.71, 7-day volume ratio 0.73.

1. 1. Key Day Analysis:
   • • Panic Selling Day (2026-02-19): PCT_CHANGE = -14.48%, VOLUME = 3,583,393, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO = 5.21 (ranked 4th in nearly a decade). An extreme pattern of price decline on high volume. According to Wyckoff principles, this is a clear signal of concentrated, panic-driven release of supply (selling pressure), often indicating that a decline may be nearing its end, though subsequent confirmation is required.
   • • Rally Climax and Distribution Signs (2026-02-11): Price reached a new rally high of 271.48, but volume (835,264) was significantly lower than on preceding up days (e.g., 1,348,518 on February 4), with a VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO of only 1.03. This is a potential warning signal of price making a new high on diminishing volume (Upthrust After Distribution), indicating demand is drying up at high price levels and upward momentum is insufficient.
   • • Rally Confirmation Day (2026-01-05): Price surged 2.85%, volume jumped to 1,044,582, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO was a high 1.79. This represents rising price on increased volume (Sign of Strength), confirming the entry of short-term demand and the start of the rally.
   • • Current Situation (2026-02-24): Price declined slightly by -0.57%, volume 957,530, significantly contracted from the massive panic day volume, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO is 0.73. Price decline on low volume indicates that after the panic, active selling pressure (supply) has diminished at the current price level, but strong demand intervention is also not yet observed.
2. 2. Volume Anomaly Quantification:
   • • Recent average volume metrics (AVERAGE_VOLUME_7D/14D) have been substantially elevated due to the massive volume on February 19-20. Their historical rankings over nearly a decade have entered the top 15 (e.g., WEEK_MAX_AVERAGE_VOLUME_14D ranked 3rd), confirming from a long-term perspective the extreme abnormality of recent market activity.
   • • VOLUME_GROWTH peaked at 389.29% on February 19, ranking 5th in nearly a decade, providing direct evidence of the volume explosion.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset POOL has an opening price of 219.61, 7-day intraday Parkinson volatility 0.48, 7-day intraday volatility ratio 1.19, 7-day historical volatility 1.10, 7-day historical volatility ratio 1.25, RSI 27.68.

1. 1. Volatility Levels and Changes:
   • • Sharp Spike: HIS_VOLA_7D surged from ~0.36 to over 1.10 after February 19, with HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D reaching a high of 2.27 (ranking near the top over the past decade). Short-term volatility far exceeding the long-term volatility average is a typical quantitative characteristic of market panic and trend acceleration.
   • • Intraday Volatility: PARKINSON_VOL_7D similarly jumped from ~0.32 to above 0.48, indicating a dramatic expansion in the intraday price range, significant market divergence, and extremely unstable trading conditions.
   • • Sentiment Indicator: RSI_14 dropped to 27.68 on February 24, entering oversold territory. Combined with the extreme price action on the crash day, it shows market sentiment has reached a pessimistic, even panicked, extreme state.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

• • Momentum Reversal: Although returns across periods (WTD_RETURN, MTD_RETURN) briefly turned strongly positive from January to mid-February (e.g., MTD_RETURN reached 6.84% on February 11), the crash on February 19 completely reversed the momentum.
• • Current Momentum: As of February 24, MTD_RETURN (-14.49%), QTD_RETURN (-5.02%), YTD (-5.02%) are all negative. Both short-term and medium-term momentum have significantly weakened, consistent with the conclusion of price breakdown and bearish alignment.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

1. 1. Behavioral Inference:
   • • During the January Rally: Rising prices on high volume (e.g., January 5, January 12) indicated institutional funds (smart money) were consistently buying, driving the rally. This could have been a technical long play or a correction of an oversold condition.
   • • Near the February High Zone: The price rose to the previous congestion area (~270) but volume failed to keep up (February 11), suggesting smart money might have been distributing (Distribution) or reducing long positions by capitalizing on market optimism, rather than continuing to push prices higher.
   • • February 19 Panic Day: The massive volume sell-off was the result of large-scale selling (potentially institutional stop-losses, fund redemptions, or active shorting) combined with panic-driven retail selling. The key question is: who absorbed such massive selling volume? Data shows the day's trading value approached $800 million, the fourth-highest in nearly a decade, meaning an equivalent amount of capital was buying. This could indicate another group of smart money beginning preliminary, tentative Accumulation amid the panic, but requires subsequent confirmation through contracting volume and price stabilization.
   • • Current (February 24): Volume has contracted to near the recent average, with prices oscillating narrowly. This indicates large-scale selling pressure has temporarily exhausted, but large-scale buying interest is also not rushing in. The market may be in an observation period of ranging Accumulation or continuation of Distribution, transitioning from panic to seeking a new equilibrium.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

1. 1. Key Price Levels:
   • • Recent Strong Resistance: 272.235 (2026-02-11 high) and the 268-270 zone (multiple highs from late January to early February). This area marks the top of the previous rally and the starting point of the current decline.
   • • Recent Support: 216.32 (2026-02-19 low). This is the low point created by panic selling. A break below may open new downside space.
   • • Secondary Resistance/Support: The 255-260 zone (the consolidation platform from late January, now acting as resistance); the 230-233 zone (the consolidation range from late December 2025).
2. 2. Integrated Trading Signals and Operational Recommendations:
   • • Wyckoff Event Assessment: The market has just experienced a Panic Selling (PS) event, followed by an Automatic Rally (AR) and is currently in the Secondary Test (ST) process. We are observing whether this test is a "Test of Exhaustion of Supply" (contracting volume, narrow price range) or a "Test of Continued Strong Supply" (another decline on increased volume).
   • • Current Signal: Monitor / Await Further Signals. Despite the occurrence of panic selling and oversold conditions, no confirmed Wyckoff events signaling strong demand return (such as a high-volume bullish breakout or a successful Spring) have yet appeared.
   • • Operational Recommendations:
     • • Bears: In a primary downtrend, rallies present better shorting opportunities. Aggressive traders can consider establishing short positions if price rallies towards the 230-233 or 255-260 resistance zones and shows signs of stalling with low volume or renewed decline on increased volume. Place stop-loss above the rally high.
     • • Bulls: Left-side trading carries extremely high risk. Prudent long-term investors should wait patiently for clear "End of Accumulation" signals. For example: price forms a higher low (HL) above the 216 support, accompanied by one or more successful, low-volume downward tests (volume VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO < 0.7), followed by a high-volume advance breaking above the recent downtrend line or MA_20D.
   • • Future Verification Points:
     1. 1. Bullish Verification: Can price stabilize in the 216-220 zone, accompanied by consecutive days of healthy volume-price structure ("rising price on increasing volume, falling price on decreasing volume")? Can future rallies show significant volume expansion (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.2) and close above MA_5D or even MA_20D?
     2. 2. Bearish Verification: Does the Secondary Test of the 216 support fail (i.e., break below on increased volume)? Do rallies to the aforementioned resistance zones again show volume-price divergence or stalling?
     3. 3. Volatility Verification: Do HIS_VOLA_7D and PARKINSON_VOL_7D begin to converge and decline from extreme highs? Volatility convergence is typically a necessary condition for the market to transition from chaotic panic to orderly basing.

Summary Conclusion:
After experiencing a failed rally, POOL triggered a near-decade-level panic sell-off on February 19 due to a significant negative catalyst (likely earnings or an industry event), rapidly shifting the market from a potential Distribution phase into a Markdown Panic phase. The current price is near the panic low, volume has contracted, RSI is oversold, and short-term selling pressure has weakened. However, no signs of organized, trend-reversing demand entry have yet been observed. The market is at a critical balance point. Investors are advised to maintain high caution and wait for the market to provide clearer results of the bull-bear battle (exhaustion of supply vs. continuation pattern) near key support levels before making decisions. Historical ranking data highlights the extremity of recent volume-price-volatility movements, reminding us that the current market structure is at an important node with potentially long-term implications.

Disclaimer: This report/analysis is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness in the content but makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks; investments require caution. Any investment actions taken based on this report are at your own risk.

Thank you for your attention! Wyckoff Volume-Price Market Analysis is published daily at 8:00 AM before market open. Your comments and shares are greatly appreciated. Your recognition is crucial. Let's work together to see the market signals clearly.