Alright, I will assume the identity of a Wyckoff Method quantitative trading researcher to conduct an in-depth analysis of POLUSDT. This report will be strictly based on the daily data and historical ranking data you provided, adhering to Wyckoff volume-price principles to derive conclusions regarding market supply and demand, the intentions of large investors, and trading signals.

POLUSDT Quantitative Analysis Report (Based on the Wyckoff Method)

Product Code: POLUSDT
Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Date: 2026-02-25
Core Conclusion Preview: After experiencing an epic speculative surge (gain of over 76% in 61 trading days) and distribution in January 2026, this asset is currently in a significant downtrend. The current price is testing a narrow range formed by the previous crash low (0.0839) and the rally high (0.0962). Data indicates that supply has shifted from dominance to exhaustion, but demand has not yet effectively recovered. The market is in an initial stabilization phase following a panic sell-off, but a trend reversal signal has not yet formed.

1. Trend Analysis & Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-02-24, the target POLUSDT has an open price of 0.11, a close price of 0.11, a 5-day moving average of 0.11, a 10-day moving average of 0.11, a 20-day moving average of 0.10, a daily change of +6.28%, a weekly change of +4.61%, a monthly change of +9.25%, a quarterly change of +12.84%, and a year-to-date change of +12.84%.

POLUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
POLUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Moving Average Alignment & Trend Judgment:
    1. 1. Long-term Trend (Bearish): The current price (0.1134) is significantly below all major moving averages (MA_60D: 0.118, MA_30D: 0.106, MA_20D: 0.102, MA_10D: 0.108, MA_5D: 0.107). The MA_60D continues to decline, the MA_30D has flattened, showing a typical bearish alignment.
    2. 2. Mid-term Reversal: From early to mid-January, all moving averages (especially MA_5D, MA_10D) rose rapidly, forming a bullish alignment, confirming the markup phase. However, since January 19th, after the price broke below the MA_5D, the MA_5D and MA_10D successively formed death crosses with the MA_20D, marking the transition from an uptrend to a downtrend.
    3. 3. Current Phase: The market is in a "Markdown" phase. The price is trading below all moving averages, and the moving averages are in a bearish, expanding alignment, indicating that the dominant force of supply persists. The recent price rebound (+6.28% on Feb 24th) has not yet effectively touched any major moving average, representing a secondary rally within the downtrend.
  • • Wyckoff Market Phase Positioning:
    According to price action and volume-price relationships, the market experienced a complete Wyckoff cycle within the analysis period: The rapid rise in January belongs to the "Markup/Upthrust" phase; the massive volatility and crash during January 11th-15th are typical "Panic Selling" combined with "Distribution"; from then until now, the price has entered the "Markdown" phase, and recent lows (0.0839, 0.0889) show signs of "Automatic Rally" and "Secondary Test", suggesting the market may be seeking a phased bottom.

2. Volume-Price Relationship & Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-02-24, the target POLUSDT has an open price of 0.11, a close price of 0.11, a volume of 55053470.20, a daily change of +6.28%, a volume of 55053470.20, a 7-day average volume of 49134534.16, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.12.

POLUSDT Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
POLUSDT Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Demand-Driven Rise (Early January):
    • • January 2nd: Price rose +6.68%, volume increased by 33.9% to 67.65 million, and the volume/14-day average ratio (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO) reached a high of 1.49, a weekly high. This indicates the rise was driven by active buying demand, a healthy advance.
    • • January 9th-10th: This was the core stage of the rally. On January 9th, the price surged +14.64%, volume exploded by 121.8% to 258 million. Historical rankings show that day's volume (258M) was the 6th highest in the past decade, with VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO at 4.46 (ranking 3rd). The next day (Jan 10th), it continued to rise +13.93% on even higher volume of 390 million, setting the highest volume record in the past decade. All volume ratio indicators (e.g., VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO=5.30) ranked 1st historically. This is a typical demand explosion, but it also sowed the seeds for massive turnover, creating conditions for subsequent distribution.
  • • Supply-Driven Distribution & Panic (Mid-January):
    • • January 11th-12th: Prices fell -7.49% and -8.04% respectively, while volume remained extremely high (243M, 199M), but the price failed to make new highs. This is a classic "Effort vs Result" scenario (high volume without corresponding price advance/decline), indicating that powerful supply (selling pressure) entered at high prices and quickly overwhelmed demand. In historical rankings, the daily price changes (PCT_CHANGE) for these two days ranked as the 4th and 8th lowest that week, confirming supply dominance. Wyckoff theory identifies this as the beginning of "Distribution".
    • • January 31st & February 5th: Prices fell -7.24% and -15.72% respectively, with volume expanding to 115M and 151M. Volume ratios (e.g., VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO=1.83 on Jan 31st) were elevated. This represents "Panic Selling" within the downtrend, where supply was heavily consumed during the price decline.
  • • Demand Attempt & Supply Exhaustion (Mid-February to Present):
    • • February 6th-12th: Price oscillated violently around the lows (0.0839-0.0967). On February 12th, the price rebounded +8.21% with increased volume, but the absolute volume (66.21M) was far below the January peak. Volume ratio indicators (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO=0.72) were only at normal levels. This appears more like a technical rebound triggered at key support (0.0839) rather than large-scale demand entry.
    • • February 22nd-24th: Key signals emerged. On February 22nd, the price fell but volume shrank drastically to 25.86 million. The volume/7-day average ratio (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO) was only 0.26, setting the lowest record in the past decade. This indicates waning downward momentum and signs of supply exhaustion. On February 24th, the price rose +6.28% on moderately increased volume of 55.05 million. This preliminarily forms a "Spring" or "Rally after Shakeout" model: a rise following supply exhaustion.

3. Volatility & Market Sentiment

As of 2026-02-24, the target POLUSDT has an open price of 0.11, a 7-day Parkinson volatility of 0.75, a 7-day Parkinson volatility ratio of 0.91, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.65, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 0.87, and an RSI of 55.44.

POLUSDT Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
POLUSDT Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Peaks & Extreme Sentiment:
    • • Volatility (both HIS_VOLA and PARKINSON_VOL) reached historic peaks in mid-to-late January. For example, HIS_VOLA_7D reached 1.7036 on January 12th, ranking 14th highest in the past decade; HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D reached 2.0379 on January 14th, ranking 8th highest. This indicates short-term volatility far exceeded the long-term average, placing the market in a state of extreme panic and irrationality.
    • • Entering February, the 7-day volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) has significantly retreated from the peak of 1.76 to the current 0.65, showing market sentiment has calmed from panic. However, volatility ratios (e.g., HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D=0.87) are still above 1, indicating relatively active short-term volatility and a market in a sensitive, directional-choosing state.
  • • Overbought/Oversold Status:
    • • The RSI_14 reached an extreme 84.80 on January 10th, setting the highest record in the past decade, confirming severe overbought conditions at that time and paving the way for a reversal.
    • • Subsequently, the RSI declined steadily, touching 30.13 on February 5th, entering oversold territory. The current RSI is 55.44, having moved out of the oversold zone but not yet entering overbought territory. It is in a neutral-to-strong area, echoing the price rebound, but does not yet constitute a strong reversal confirmation signal.

4. Relative Strength & Momentum Performance

  • • Momentum from Peak to Exhaustion: The MTD_RETURN reached an astonishing +76.62% on January 10th, exhibiting extremely strong short-term momentum. However, this momentum was unsustainable, with QTD_RETURN and YTD falling back to +12.84% and +12.84% respectively.
  • • Short-term Momentum Improvement: The recent weekly return (WTD_RETURN for Feb 18-24) is +4.61%, and the MTD_RETURN (February) is +9.25%, showing improvement in short-term momentum, consistent with the recent price rebound. However, this is merely rebound momentum within a downtrend, and has not yet changed the weak medium-term (QTD) and long-term (since the January peak) structure.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

  1. 1. Distribution (January 9th-15th): Large capital conducted massive distribution during the price surge and peak market euphoria. The enormous record-breaking volume signifies their successful transfer of holdings to chasing public investors at high prices.
  2. 2. Panic Washout & Shakeout (Late January - Early February): Following distribution, the price fell rapidly with sustained high volume. This period included panic selling by the public and likely "Shakeout" behavior by large capital—creating panic during the decline to flush out weak holders, setting the stage for future accumulation.
  3. 3. Potential Preliminary Accumulation (Mid-to-Late February): The "Supply Exhaustion (extremely low volume)" on February 22nd is a key signal watched by smart money. The subsequent moderate-volume rise on February 24th could be a test buy by smart money after probing market selling pressure. This forms a preliminary accumulation structure: Panic Selling (Selling Climax) - Automatic Rally (AR) - Secondary Test (ST) showing Supply Exhaustion (SC). However, a complete accumulation range has not yet formed; it requires subsequent confirmation of sustained demand entry above the support level.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis & Trading Signals

POLUSDT Support/Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
POLUSDT Support/Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • S1 (Absolute Support/Panic Low): 0.0839 (Low on 2026-02-06).
    • • S2 (Recently Tested Support): 0.0889 - 0.0911 (Low area formed from 2026-02-10 to 02-12).
  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • R1 (Recent Rally High/Neckline): 0.0962 (Close price on 2026-02-12). Breaking this level is the first signal for a continuation of the rebound.
    • • R2 (Psychological & Technical Barrier): 0.1000 - 0.1030 (Previous multiple lows and round number level).
    • • R3 (Major Supply Zone/Moving Average Resistance): 0.1070 - 0.1100 (Confluence area of MA_5D, MA_10D, MA_30D).
  • • Integrated Trading Signal & Operational Recommendations:
    • • Current Signal: Neutral-Bullish (Monitor and await pullback confirmation). The market shows preliminary signs of a halt in decline, but the downtrend remains unchanged.
    • • Bullish Scenario (Requires subsequent validation): If the price pulls back to the S2 zone (0.089-0.091) and shows signs of stabilization on low volume (volume below recent average), followed by a breakout above R1 (0.0962) on increased volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.2), this can be considered a preliminary long signal. Target R2 (0.103), with a stop loss set below S1 (0.0839).
    • • Bearish Scenario (If the rebound fails): If the price faces rejection at R1 (0.0962) or the R3 zone (0.107-0.110) and shows signs of distribution (high volume without progress or long upper shadows), this indicates the re-emergence of supply within the downtrend and can be seen as a signal for trend resumption. Downside targets are S2 and S1.
    • • Future Key Validation Points:
      1. 1. Demand Validation: Can the price form a Higher Low (HL) above key support levels?
      2. 2. Supply Validation: When rallying to resistance, can the volume pattern show a healthy "increased volume on advances, decreased volume on pullbacks" structure?
      3. 3. Structural Validation: Can a clear bottoming structure, defined by a series of Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH), be formed?

Summary: POLUSDT is at a critical juncture. The panic decline following massive distribution has ended, and the market shows signs of supply exhaustion and initial demand attempts. However, before a clear bottoming structure (such as a Wyckoff accumulation range) and trend reversal signals (like moving average golden crosses) are formed, the market remains in a repair phase under a bearish structure. Traders should adopt a cautious strategy, prioritizing observation of price reactions at key support/resistance levels, and guide next steps based on the above "validation points," rather than chasing a single bullish candlestick.

Disclaimer: The content of this report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness but makes no guarantee regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks; investments require caution. Any investment actions based on this report are taken at your own risk.

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