20260224 PEPEUSDT Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

As a quantitative trading researcher proficient in the Wyckoff Method, I will provide you with a comprehensive, in-depth quantitative analysis report on PEPEUSDT based on the data you have provided.

PEPEUSDT Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report

Product Code: PEPEUSDT
Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Time: 2026-02-25

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset PEPEUSDT has an opening price of 0.00, a closing price of 0.00, a 5-day moving average of 0.00, a 10-day moving average of 0.00, a 20-day moving average of 0.00, with daily change of -1.01%, weekly change of -10.48%, monthly change of -5.30%, quarterly change of -2.48%, and yearly change of -2.48%.

Data Derivation and Observations:

• • Moving Average Alignment: Before the explosive rally on January 1, 2026, the moving averages across periods (MA_5D/10D/20D/30D/60D) were aligned in a bearish pattern, with price suppressed below the long-term averages. The rally in early January caused the short-term moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D) to rapidly cross above the medium and long-term averages, forming a brief bullish alignment. However, after peaking around mid-January (approximately January 8), MA_5D first flattened and then crossed below MA_10D, followed by price leading all short-term averages lower. As of February 24, MA_5D (0.00000414) < MA_20D (0.00000404) < MA_60D (0.00000486), indicating a clear weakening of the short-term trend and the establishment of a medium-term bearish trend.
• • Price Action and Wyckoff Phases:
  • • Accumulation and Markup Phase (2025-12-26 to 2026-01-07): Price oscillated narrowly at low levels (~0.000004) in late December, accompanied by shrinking volume (near the lowest in the analysis period). Entering January, a "Spring" or "Terminal Shakeout" pattern emerged (January 1, 2) – a sharp price increase accompanied by record-breaking volume (e.g., on January 2, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO reached 8.91, ranking 1st in nearly 10 years). This is a clear signal that demand (buyers) completely overwhelmed supply (sellers), marking the end of accumulation and the beginning of the markup.
  • • Distribution Phase (2026-01-08 to 2026-01-31): After reaching a high of 0.00000718 on January 4, price entered a wide-ranging consolidation at high levels. Key signals include: 1) Price advances occurred on declining volume trends (e.g., from January 5 to January 8, down days had high volume, up days had low volume); 2) Multiple upper shadows appeared (e.g., January 5, January 14), indicating heavy selling pressure at highs. The high-volume break below the consolidation range lower boundary on January 31 (0.00000415, -10.56%) confirmed the completion of distribution.
  • • Markdown Phase (2026-02-01 to 2026-02-24): Price entered a downtrend channel after breaking below key support. Although there were rebounds (e.g., a 27.78% surge on February 14), the rebound volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO=2.69) was far below the levels seen during the early January rally, and price failed to effectively break above the declining MA_20D. This qualifies as a "Bear Market Rally" or "Secondary Test," verifying the continued presence of supply.

Conclusion: PEPEUSDT has completely experienced the Wyckoff cycle phases of "Accumulation - Markup - Distribution - Markdown." The current market (as of 2026-02-24) is in the middle to late stage of the markdown phase. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and price is testing support near prior lows.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset PEPEUSDT has an opening price of 0.00, a closing price of 0.00, a volume of 7618898233853.00, a daily change of -1.01%, a volume of 7618898233853.00, a 7-day average volume of 7850278304980.14, and a 7-day volume ratio of 0.97.

Data Derivation and Observations:

• • Demand-Dominated Days (Bullish):
  • • 2026-01-02: Price increased by 22.15%, volume surged to 45131B, VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO reached a high of 8.38 (ranking 1st in nearly 10 years). This is a strong signal of demand influx, marking the trend initiation.
  • • 2026-02-14: Price increased by 27.78%, volume was 22456B, VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO was 2.22. This is a significant demand-driven rebound within the downtrend, but the volume magnitude is far lower than in early January, suggesting limited demand strength, more indicative of short covering or speculative short-term capital flow.
• • Supply-Dominated Days (Bearish):
  • • 2026-01-31: Price plummeted -10.56%, volume was 16569B, VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO was 1.60. This represents a concentrated release of supply (sellers) following the completion of distribution, confirming the trend reversal.
  • • 2026-02-05: Price plummeted -18.33%, volume was 25092B. Another high-volume plunge within the downtrend indicates not only the presence but also the acceleration of supply, potentially triggering panic.
• • Lack of Demand Days (Feeble Rebound): Multiple rebounds from mid-to-late January through February (e.g., January 13, February 12) showed price increases accompanied by volume at or only slightly above recent average levels (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO generally <1.5), revealing low buying interest and difficulty sustaining rebounds.
• • Supply Exhaustion Days (Potential Bottoming): On 2026-02-23/24, price declined slightly for consecutive days (-2.22%, -1.01%), with volume contracting significantly (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO at 1.35 and 0.97, respectively). If such "low-volume decline" occurs near critical support levels, it may indicate weakening selling pressure, serving as an early signal to watch for a potential bottom.

Conclusion: The supply-demand landscape has fundamentally reversed. The massive demand in early January has been entirely replaced by persistent supply from mid-to-late January through February. The current market is supply-dominated, with demand only sporadically counterattacking after oversold conditions but with weak force. Recent volume has contracted to near-average levels, indicating decreased market activity and a stalemate between buyers and sellers, awaiting a new directional breakout.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of February 24, 2026, the underlying asset PEPEUSDT has an opening price of 0.00, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.70, a 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 0.73, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.28, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 0.19, and an RSI of 42.37.

Data Derivation and Observations:

• • Volatility Peaks (Euphoria/Panic):
  • • 2026-01-02: HIS_VOLA_7D surged to 1.91, HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D reached 1.67 (ranking 19th in nearly 10 years), PARKINSON_VOL_7D reached 1.17. This indicates a sharp spike in short-term volatility, with market sentiment in a state of extreme excitement.
  • • 2026-02-05/06: Volatility spiked again during the decline (HIS_VOLA_7D >1.57), corresponding to price plunges, reflecting market sentiment shifting into panic selling.
• • Volatility Contraction (Cooling Sentiment/Bottoming Preparation):
  • • 2026-02-22 to 2026-02-24: HIS_VOLA_7D rapidly declined to low levels of 0.27-0.28, HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D was as low as 0.23 and 0.19 (ranking 3rd and 2nd in nearly 10 years, respectively), PARKINSON_VOL_7D fell to 0.70. Short-term volatility has contracted extremely and is significantly below medium-to-long-term volatility levels. This suggests that market panic or euphoria has been fully released, entering a quiet, watchful "calm before the storm" phase, often seen at the end of a trend.
• • RSI Overbought/Oversold:
  • • Overbought: RSI_14 reached 82.15 on January 4 (ranking 16th in nearly 10 years), clearly indicating short-term market overheating, resonating with the price top.
  • • Oversold: RSI_14 fell to 27.14 and 34.39 on February 5 and February 10, respectively, entering oversold territory, which subsequently triggered the technical rebound on February 14.

Conclusion: Market sentiment has completed a full cycle from "extreme excitement" (early January) to "panic" (early February) to "quiet/watchful" (late February). The current extremely low short-term volatility (at historical extreme lows) indicates that market sentiment has frozen. This environment often precedes "stealth accumulation" by large investors in the late stages of a decline or signals that the market is about to choose a new direction. Combined with price being at low levels, close attention should be paid to whether volatility expands again to indicate the start of a new trend.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

Data Derivation and Observations:

• • Short-Term Momentum: WTD_RETURN (as of February 24) is -10.48%, MTD_RETURN is -5.30%, indicating significantly negative short-term momentum.
• • Medium-Term Momentum: The YTD return is -2.48%, but given the huge gain in early January, this figure masks the significant recent drawdown. The more relevant TTM_12 (trailing 12 months) return of -50.19% indicates that from a longer-term perspective, the asset remains in a deep correction.
• • Momentum Reversal: The sharp reversal from a high MTD_RETURN of 78.16% (on January 4) in January to negative values in February confirms a dramatic shift from strongly positive to negative momentum, validating the trend reversal.

Conclusion: All momentum indicators across timeframes point downward. Short, medium, and long-term momentum have all weakened, consistent with the conclusion of a markdown phase derived from trend analysis and volume-price relationships. The asset currently lacks upward relative strength.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Data Derivation and Behavioral Inference:
Based on the comprehensive analysis across the above dimensions, the operational path of large investors can be outlined:

1. 1. Accumulation and Markup (Late December 2025 to 2026-01-02): During a quiet market with depressed prices (low volume in late December), smart money likely began positioning. On January 1-2, they rapidly drove prices higher through massive buying (record-breaking volume rankings), lifting price away from their cost basis while attracting market attention and follow-on buying. The MAX_VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO ranking #1 is strong evidence of this behavior.
2. 2. High-Level Distribution (2026-01-08 to 2026-01-31): After prices were elevated to high levels, smart money began distributing their holdings within the high-level consolidation. This manifested as "price rises on shrinking volume and price declines on expanding volume," a classic process of transferring holdings to late-to-the-party retail investors. The high-volume breakdown on January 31 represents the market losing support after distribution completion and smart money exit.
3. 3. Creating Panic and Possible Secondary Distribution/Testing (After 2026-02-05): During the downtrend, high-volume plunges occurred again on February 5-6. This could be: a) Residual smart money liquidation; b) Chain-reaction selling triggered by leveraged long liquidations; c) Or, smart money creating panic to test genuine selling pressure and absorption capacity at low levels in preparation for the next cycle.
4. 4. Current Behavior (2026-02-22 to 2026-02-24): Price is at low levels, volume is extremely low, and volatility has frozen. Smart money is likely in a quiet observation period. They may be waiting for definitive signals of supply exhaustion, or they may be patiently and discretely accumulating shares during "low-volume declines," but there are no signs yet of large-scale active buying (lack of high-volume rallies).

Conclusion: Large investors have completed a full cycle of "accumulation - markup - distribution." Currently, they are likely in a phase of observation or beginning early, tentative positioning for the next cycle. Market control has completely shifted from buyers (demand) to sellers (supply), but the extreme lows in volatility and volume suggest that selling pressure may also be exhausting.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

Key Price Level Identification:

• • Strong Resistance Levels:
  • • R1: 0.00000470 - 0.00000500 Zone: The upper boundary of the recent consolidation range and the area where multiple rebounds were rejected in late February; also the current area of MA_20D.
  • • R2: 0.00000600 - 0.00000620 Zone: The lower boundary of the dense trading range from late January to early February.
  • • R3: 0.00000718: The absolute high of this rally (January 4).
• • Key Support Levels:
  • • S1: 0.00000415 - 0.00000400 Zone: The breakdown point from January 31 and a psychological barrier tested multiple times in February.
  • • S2: 0.00000383 - 0.00000340 Zone: The low area from February (January 31, February 5), this is the most critical support zone currently. A break below would open the door to deeper declines.

Comprehensive Trading Signals and Operational Recommendations:

Based on Wyckoff events, the current market is in the potential late stage of a downtrend (but not confirmed ended). The main contradiction is: price is at low levels with frozen sentiment (favorable for a bottom) vs. the trend remains downward with no sign of demand returning (unfavorable for a rally).

• • Comprehensive Signal: Neutral/Stand Aside, or only aggressive investors may consider a light long position with strict stop-loss. It is recommended to wait for clearer confirmation signals of "demand return" or "supply exhaustion."
• • Bullish Scenario (Potential Rebound Opportunity) Trigger Conditions:
  1. 1. Price Action: A clear "Spring" or "Shakeout" pattern (quick breakdown followed by rapid recovery) appears above the S2 support zone (0.00000383-0.00000340).
  2. 2. Volume-Price Confirmation: A high-volume bullish candle appears (single-day VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.5, and gain >5%), reclaiming the S1 resistance level (0.00000415).
  3. 3. Signal Validation: If the above occurs, it can be considered a potential long entry signal. Initial target is R1 (0.00000470-0.00000500), with a stop-loss placed below the signal day's low or below the lower boundary of the S2 support zone.
• • Bearish Scenario (Trend Continuation) Trigger Conditions:
  1. 1. Price Action: Price breaks below the lower boundary of the S2 support zone (0.00000340) on high volume.
  2. 2. Signal Validation: If this occurs, the downtrend will resume and likely accelerate. Any bottom-fishing should be avoided, and existing short positions can be held, targeting lower levels.
• • Future Validation Points:
  • • Confirming Bullish View: Within the next 1-2 weeks, price needs to stabilize above the S2 zone, accompanied by at least one up day with VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.2.
  • • Invalidating Bullish View: If price easily breaks below 0.00000340 with daily volume consistently above average, it indicates that supply remains strong and the decline is not over.

Risk Warning: Given that historical volatility has dropped to extreme lows (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D ranks among the lowest in history), a breakout in either direction could lead to a sharp expansion in volatility, triggering intense one-sided price movement. Caution is advised until a breakout is confirmed.

Disclaimer: The content of this report/analysis is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. While the author strives for objectivity and fairness, no guarantees are made regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks; investing requires caution. Any investment actions based on this report are undertaken at one's own risk.

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