Okay, adhering to your instructions. The following is an in-depth quantitative analysis report on ETHUSDT based on the Wyckoff method. The report is strictly derived from the provided daily data for 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24 and historical ranking indicators, aiming for objectivity and a data-driven approach.

Quantitative Analysis Report: ETHUSDT (2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24)

Report Date: 2026-02-25
Analyst: Wyckoff Method Quantitative Researcher

1. Trend Analysis & Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-02-24, the asset ETHUSDT has an opening price of 1856.30, a closing price of 1854.62, a 5-day moving average of 1941.09, a 10-day moving average of 1970.45, a 20-day moving average of 1999.26, a daily change of -0.09%, a weekly change of -6.88%, a monthly change of -24.36%, a quarterly change of -37.59%, and an annual change of -37.59%.

ETHUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
ETHUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Trend Structure: During the analysis period, ETH underwent a complete cycle of "rally - breakdown - primary decline." Before January 13, 2026, price attempted to rally and briefly moved above short-term moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D) but consistently failed to effectively break the long-term descending trend line (MA_30D, MA_60D continued to decline). After January 20th, price effectively broke below all moving average support through gaps and long bearish candles, leading to the formation of a steep bearish alignment among short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages (MA_5D < MA_10D < MA_20D < MA_30D < MA_60D), marking the establishment of the primary downtrend. As of February 24th, the price (1854.62) has deviated significantly from all moving averages, with MA_5D (1941.09) acting as the nearest resistance, exhibiting characteristics of a typical one-sided bear market.
  • • Key Turning Points:
    • • 2026-01-02: High-volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO: 1.54) long bullish candle (+4.04%) broke above MA_5D and MA_10D, forming a short-term bullish crossover (MA_5D crossing above MA_10D), which triggered a two-week weak rally. This phase can be considered a weak rally (Rally).
    • • 2026-01-20: Price fell sharply (-7.83%) with a surge in volume (VOLUME_GROWTH: +155.28%). The closing price fell below MA_5D, MA_10D, and MA_20D simultaneously for the first time, signaling the end of the rally and the start of the primary decline wave.
    • • 2026-02-05: High-volume crash (-14.96%, VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO historical rank 12). Price broke below the previous consolidation platform, entering a panic decline (Panic) phase.
  • • Market Phase Assessment: Based on the relationship between price and moving averages, price-volume behavior, and volatility characteristics, the market completed a transition from distribution (Distribution, corresponding to the Jan 2-19 rally) to decline (Markdown), and finally into a panic selling (Panic Selling) phase (early February) during the analysis period. Current (Feb 24) price action shows weakening downward momentum, potentially entering a preliminary support (Preliminary Support) or secondary test (Secondary Test) phase following the panic, but a clear bottom reversal structure has not yet emerged.

2. Price-Volume Relationship & Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-02-24, the asset ETHUSDT has an opening price of 1856.30, a closing price of 1854.62, a daily volume of 409811.25, a daily change of -0.09%, a daily volume of 409811.25, a 7-day average volume of 338322.22, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.21.

ETHUSDT Price-Volume Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
ETHUSDT Price-Volume Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Demand-Driven Phase (Limited):
    • • 2025-12-29 & 2026-01-02: Exhibited the classic "high-volume rise." Prices increased by 1.22% and 4.04% respectively, while volume grew by 277.20% and 171.80% compared to the previous day, and volume was 111.69% and 154.02% higher than the 7-day average. This demonstrates significant buyer demand, which was the core driver of the early January rally.
    • • 2026-01-13: After a brief correction, price surged 7.43% in a single day, accompanied by expanded volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO: 1.70). This was the final demand climax of the rally cycle before supply began to overwhelm demand.
  • • Supply-Driven Phase (Significant and Prolonged):
    • • 2026-01-20: The starting point of the high-volume crash. Price fell sharply by 7.83%, with volume surging 155.28% (VOLUME_GROWTH), marking the first appearance of overwhelming supply dominance, declaring the end of the rally.
    • • 2026-01-31 to 2026-02-06: Concentrated outbreak period of panic selling. Consecutive occurrences of "high-volume crash" phenomena:
      • • 01-31: Price -9.43%, volume growth 40.32%, VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO reached 3.28 (historical rank within top 20).
      • • 02-05: Price -14.96%, volume growth 54.36%, VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO reached 4.70 (ranked 12th in nearly a decade), indicating selling pressure reaching historically extreme levels.
      • • 02-06: Although it closed up (+12.95%), intraday volatility was severe and volume (VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO: 4.77) remained extremely high, constituting a strong rebound after panic selling (Automatic Rally) with intense battle between bulls and bears, not indicative of stable demand entry.
  • • Signals of Insufficient Demand / Supply Exhaustion:
    • • 2026-01-10 & 2026-01-24: Typical "low-volume consolidation." Price fluctuations were minimal (-0.05%, -0.11%), volume contracted sharply (VOLUME_GROWTH: -70.01%, -71.08%), and the volume ratio to the 7-day average was only 0.28 and 0.26 (the latter historically ranked 8th). This indicates severely lacking buyer interest and dried-up market liquidity during a market decline pause or weak rally.
    • • 2026-02-22 & 2026-02-23: Alternation of "low-volume decline" and "high-volume decline" at low levels. 22nd: low-volume minor decline (-0.79%, VOLUME_AVG_21D_RATIO: 0.20, historical rank 5). 23rd: high-volume decline (-5.19%). This could represent the final release of bearish force or the beginning of a new decline, requiring judgment based on subsequent price action.
  • • Wyckoff Event Identification: The extremely high-volume crashes on Jan 31 and Feb 5 constitute panic selling (Panic Selling) events. The massive rebound on Feb 6 can be seen as an automatic rally (Automatic Rally). The market is currently likely in the early stage of a secondary test (Secondary Test), testing the support strength of the panic lows, observing whether signs of low volume or demand entry will appear.

3. Volatility & Market Sentiment

As of 2026-02-24, the asset ETHUSDT has an opening price of 1856.30, a 7-day Parkinson volatility of 0.45, a 7-day Parkinson volatility volume ratio of 0.83, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.40, a 7-day historical volatility volume ratio of 0.71, and an RSI of 30.22.

ETHUSDT Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
ETHUSDT Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Extremes: Market volatility expanded dramatically during the primary decline wave, especially the panic phase.
    • • Historical Volatility (HIS_VOLA): The 7-day historical volatility peaked at 0.9757 on 2026-01-31, far exceeding its 60-day average (0.5983). The ratio of short-term to long-term volatility (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D) reached 2.2283 (nearly a decade rank: 16) on 02-06, indicating extreme market panic and trend acceleration.
    • • Intraday Volatility (PARKINSON_VOL): The 7-day Parkinson volatility peaked at 1.4139 on 02-05. Its ratio to the 60-day average (PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D) reached 2.6004 (nearly a decade rank: 7) on 02-06, similarly confirming that intraday price fluctuations reached historically extreme levels.
    • • Volatility Structure Change: After February 7th, although price remained at low levels, the ratio of short-term volatility (7D) to medium-term (21D, 30D) volatility (e.g., HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_21D) quickly dropped below 0.5 (e.g., 0.2152 on 02-22, historical rank 6), indicating the market transitioned from violent panic-driven fluctuations to a sluggish, directionless consolidation, which is often a characteristic of trend exhaustion or bottom formation.
  • • Sentiment Indicator (RSI): The RSI_14 clearly delineates market overbought/oversold conditions. Near the rally high on Jan 13, RSI approached 70 (68.68), showing short-term overbought conditions. Upon entering the primary decline, RSI quickly moved into oversold territory (<30) and reached an extreme oversold level of 18.68 (nearly a decade rank: 8) on Feb 5. Although RSI recovered slightly afterward, it continued to hover in the oversold zone below 30, indicating extreme market pessimism but also accumulating potential for a technical rebound.

4. Relative Strength & Momentum Performance

  • • Momentum Deterioration Across All Timeframes: Returns for all periods are deeply negative, with short-term momentum deteriorating the fastest.
    • • Short-term Momentum (WTD_RETURN): Consecutive weekly declines exceeding -10% occurred during the panic week (week of Jan 26 to week of Feb 2), with the worst at -35.28% (week of Feb 5), indicating an accelerating decline.
    • • Mid-term Momentum (MTD_RETURN/QTD_RETURN/YTD): As of Feb 24, MTD is -24.36%, QTD/YTD is -37.59%, indicating a strong mid-term downtrend since the beginning of 2026 with significant losses.
    • • Long-term Momentum (TTM_36): Although the 36-month return remains positive (15.35%), it has significantly retracted from the highs in early January (approximately 150%), showing the long-term uptrend is severely challenged.
  • • Potential Signals of Momentum-Price Divergence: On Feb 13 and Feb 16, price experienced minor rebounds (+5.18%, +1.61%), but WTD_RETURN remained negative. This potential divergence of "price at new lows but declining momentum (WTD negative narrowing)", combined with volume changes (low-volume rebound on the 13th, high-volume rebound on the 16th), requires close attention as it might be an early sign of weakening downward momentum.

5. Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior Identification

Based on Wyckoff theory and the above price-volume and volatility analysis, the inference regarding smart money behavior is as follows:

  1. 1. Distribution (Distribution - Mid-late January): During the rebound process from Jan 2 to Jan 19, smart money likely utilized the market's rally sentiment to distribute at high levels. Evidence: The rally highs (Jan 13-14) were accompanied by high volume (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO >1.86), but price failed to sustain upward movement, followed by a high-volume decline (Jan 20). This is a typical "supply overwhelming demand," indicating large-scale selling pressure actively exiting at rally highs.
  2. 2. Triggering Panic & Accelerating Decline (Markdown & Panic - Late January to Early February): After breaking below key support, smart money likely did not immediately buy the dip but allowed market panic sentiment to ferment. The selling during the extremely high-volume crashes (Jan 31, Feb 5), besides retail panic selling, may have included institutions forced to liquidate, leveraged position liquidations, and some smart money continuing to short along the trend. The massive volume during this period represents intense exchange of long and short positions.
  3. 3. Initial Accumulation Probing (Possible Preliminary Support - Mid-late February): Following the historic crash, volatility peaking and receding, and volume contracting from extreme highs, smart money may begin probing accumulation in low-price regions. Key observation points:
    • • Massive rebound on Feb 6: Could be a natural rebound after panic selling, but could also be the first batch of smart money acquiring at extreme prices.
    • • Subsequent low-volume declines and tests: For example, the extremely low-volume decline on Feb 22 (volume/21-day average ratio historically 5th lowest) indicates that selling supply has significantly dried up at low levels. Smart money favors such environments of exhausted supply for facilitating future accumulation.
    • • At the current stage, smart money is more likely engaged in range accumulation, confirming the effectiveness of the bottom area and shaking out weak holders through repeated tests (secondary tests), rather than initiating a V-shaped reversal.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis & Comprehensive Trading Signals

  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • R1: 2100 - 2150: Resistance zone formed by recent rebound highs (Feb 7-10), also near the psychological level around MA_20D (~1999).
    • • R2: 2450 - 2500: Platform low before the late January crash, now a strong resistance zone.
    • • R3: 3000 - 3100: Dense trading zone of the January rally and the descending suppression area of MA_60D (~2663), a key mid-term bull-bear dividing resistance.
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • S1: 1800: Recent low set on Feb 24, also a significant psychological integer level.
    • • S2: 1747 - 1826: Starting area of the Feb 6 rebound. A break below opens new downside territory.
    • • S3: 1550 - 1650 (Potential): Next technical support zone based on decline projections.
  • • Wyckoff Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Signals:
    • • Current Phase Assessment: The market is in the early stage following panic selling (Panic), potentially entering preliminary support (PS) or secondary test (ST). Supply has been largely released during the crash (via high volume), and signs of supply exhaustion have emerged (extremely low volume). However, clear signals of demand dominance are not yet present.
    • • Trading Viewpoint: Monitor / Cautiously seek bottom rebound opportunities. It is currently unsuitable to chase shorts (due to extreme oversold conditions and excessive deviation from moving averages) nor advisable to blindly buy the dip (bottom structure unconfirmed).
    • • Specific Operational Suggestions:
      1. 1. Short Position Closing / Monitoring: Short holders may consider partial profit-taking near S1 (1800). Non-holders should monitor.
      2. 2. Potential Long Entry Signals (Require Subsequent Confirmation):
        • • Scenario A (Aggressive): When price retests the S1 (1800) or S2 (1747-1826) region, observe clear low-volume stabilization (volume significantly lower than preceding decline volumes), accompanied by a high-volume bullish candle closing above 1900. This could serve as a signal for a light long position trial. Place a stop loss below the tested low.
        • • Scenario B (Conservative): Wait for the occurrence of Wyckoff events such as "Jump Across the Creek" or "Sign of Strength". That is, price breaks through and holds above the recent rebound resistance R1 (2100-2150) with high volume, and experiences low-volume pullbacks. This is a more reliable signal of demand controlling the market.
      3. 3. Risk Warning: If price breaks below S2 (1747) with high volume, it indicates a restart of the downtrend, invalidating the above bottom-building hypothesis, and the market will seek lower support (S3).
  • • Future Validation Points:
    1. 1. Demand Validation: Within the next 1-2 weeks, can at least one classic demand entry pattern of "high-volume advance, low-volume pullback" appear?
    2. 2. Supply Test: When price approaches the 1800 region again, is the volume significantly lower than the panic volume seen on Feb 5-6? Do candlestick patterns like long lower wicks (rejection of lower prices) appear?
    3. 3. Structural Breakout: Can price build a structure of progressively higher lows (Higher Low) and eventually challenge the R1 resistance zone?

Conclusion Recap:
ETHUSDT experienced a complete downtrend cycle from distribution to panic during the analysis period. Current data suggests that panic selling has concluded for the current phase, and the market has entered a period of low-level consolidation following supply exhaustion, a typical environment where large investors may begin bottom-range operations. However, a clear trend reversal requires confirmation from sustained demand entry. It is recommended that traders remain patient, awaiting the data-supported supply-demand shift signals provided by the aforementioned Wyckoff events before formulating corresponding trading plans. The market is currently at a critical turning window requiring high vigilance and meticulous observation.

Disclaimer: This report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness in the content but makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets carry risks; investments require caution. Any investment actions based on this report are undertaken at one's own risk.

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