20260224 BTCUSDT Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

Quantitative Analysis Report on BTCUSDT Based on the Wyckoff Method

Product Code: BTCUSDT
Analysis Period: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Time: 2026-02-25

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of February 24, 2026, the subject BTCUSDT opened at 64656.01, closed at 64344.01. The 5-day moving average (MA) is 67059.82, the 10-day MA is 67681.16, and the 20-day MA is 68213.76. The daily change is -0.48%, weekly change -4.68%, monthly change -18.28%, quarterly change -26.59%, and year-to-date change -26.59%.

Based on the dynamic relationship between price and moving averages, the current market is in a clear medium-to-long-term downtrend and has recently experienced a round of panic selling.

• • Moving Average Alignment and Trend Determination:
  • • Bearish Alignment Confirmed: At the end of the analysis period (2026-02-24), the closing price (64,344.01) is below all key moving averages (MA_5D: 67,059.82; MA_10D: 67,681.16; MA_20D: 68,213.76; MA_30D: 73,232.38; MA_60D: 82,155.04). The MAs are in a bearish alignment (MA_5D < MA_10D < MA_20D < MA_30D < MA_60D), with each sloping downward, confirming a strong intermediate and long-term downtrend.
  • • Moving Average Crossover Signals: Throughout the cycle, the MA_5D consistently crossed below the MA_20D and longer-term MAs from late January to early February, forming a clear sequence of bearish crossovers that led the accelerated decline in February.
• • Market Phase Inference (Based on Wyckoff Cycle):
  • • Initial Distribution and Decline (2025-12 to mid-2026-01): The price fluctuated widely within the 88,000-97,000 range, with multiple occurrences of upthrusts on high volume (e.g., failure to rise after 2026-01-15) and high-volume declines (e.g., a sharp drop of -4.54% on 2026-01-20 with volume up 53.95%), consistent with "Distribution" characteristics. Subsequently, the price broke below the lower boundary of the 88,000-92,000 consolidation range, entering the "Markdown" phase.
  • • Panic Selling (Late January 2026 to 2026-02-05): This was the key phase within the analysis cycle. The price collapsed from above 90,000, with a single-day plunge of -14.02% on February 5th, closing at 62,909.86. The daily volume reached 106,298.83, with its VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO hitting 6.4322, ranking 2nd in nearly a decade of history, confirming the extremity and panic nature of this sell-off.
  • • Preliminary Support and Automatic Rally (2026-02-06 to Present): Following the panic low (62,345, on 2026-02-05), an "Automatic Rally" occurred, with a 12.19% rebound on February 6th. Subsequently, the price consolidated narrowly between 64,000-70,000, with significantly diminished volume (e.g., the VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO was 1.02 on 2026-02-24), indicating a pause in panic selling and entry into a phase of seeking preliminary support. The current price is testing the lower boundary of this consolidation range.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of February 24, 2026, the subject BTCUSDT opened at 64656.01, closed at 64344.01, volume 21879.61, daily change -0.48%, volume 21879.61, 7-day average volume 18737.08, 7-day volume ratio 1.17.

Volume analysis reveals the dramatic shift in supply-demand forces, evolving from a surge of panic supply to preliminary demand testing.

• • Panic Supply Dominance (Early February):
  • • Key Signal: The high-volume plunge on 2026-02-05 (price -14.02%, volume +177.0%) is a classic Wyckoff "Panic Selling" event. Historical ranking data shows that the day's WEEK_MAX_VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO (4.3912) and WEEK_MAX_VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO (5.5452) ranked 6th and 4th respectively over the past decade, proving that supply emerged with epic-level force.
  • • Implication: Such extreme volume typically signifies the final wave of long-stop liquidations and the climax of forced selling, creating conditions for a potential subsequent rally.
• • Demand Testing and Supply Weakening (Mid to Late February):
  • • Rally Quality: The rebound on February 6th (+12.19%) was accompanied by decreased volume (-12.94%), indicating the rise was primarily driven by short covering and short-term speculative buying, not strong institutional demand. During the subsequent consolidation, VOLUME_AVG_*D_RATIO indicators generally retreated to the 1.0-1.5 range, showing an overall cooling of trading activity.
  • • Positive Signal: On February 23rd, the price fell sharply by -4.42%, but volume surged by 304.59% (the VOLUME_GROWTH ranked 15th in a decade). The next day (February 24th), the price only edged down -0.48%, and volume immediately contracted by -33.85%. This forms a preliminary sign of "Effort (high volume) vs. No Result (limited decline)," suggesting that while supply reappeared near 64,000, it was absorbed by equivalent or stronger demand, indicating potential exhaustion of supply.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of February 24, 2026, the subject BTCUSDT opened at 64656.01, 7-day intraday volatility 0.37, 7-day intraday volatility volume ratio 0.85, 7-day historical volatility 0.37, 7-day historical volatility volume ratio 0.96, RSI 31.13.

Volatility indicators and RSI collectively reveal the market's transition from extreme panic to sentiment repair.

• • Volatility Explosion and Extreme Sentiment:
  • • During the plunge on February 5th, short-term volatility spiked sharply. HIS_VOLA_7D reached as high as 1.0628, and PARKINSON_VOL_7D hit 0.9397. More importantly, HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D (2.5824) and PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D (2.6930) ranked 8th and 12th respectively over the past decade, indicating short-term volatility far exceeded long-term normal levels, characteristic of market panic.
  • • The RSI_14 dropped to 15.82 on February 5th, ranking 8th in a decade for the week's WEEK_MIN_RSI_14, entering the extreme oversold territory, confirming from a sentiment perspective that the downward momentum was overextended.
• • Volatility Contraction and Sentiment Repair:
  • • By the end of the analysis period, HIS_VOLA_7D had retreated to 0.3736, and PARKINSON_VOL_7D was 0.3677. Although indicators like HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_21D (0.4236) are still at relatively low historical percentiles (rank 11), indicating that short-term volatility has significantly contracted relative to the intermediate term, the market has transitioned from "panic" to "hesitation."
  • • The current RSI_14 is at 31.13. While it has moved out of the extreme oversold zone, it remains within a weak range, indicating that market sentiment is still fragile and has not returned to equilibrium.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

Momentum indicators are weak across the board, confirming the strength of the intermediate-term downtrend.

• • Momentum Fully Negative: As of 2026-02-24, the YTD return is -26.59%, MTD_RETURN is -18.28%, and WTD_RETURN is -4.68%. Momentum across all timeframes is negative, with substantial declines in the intermediate term (MTD, YTD), indicating that bearish momentum is overwhelmingly dominant.
• • Short-Term Momentum Has Moderated: Although WTD_RETURN remains negative, its absolute value has significantly narrowed compared to the extreme weekly decline seen in early February (e.g., WTD_RETURN once reached -25.68% for the week including February 5th). This is consistent with the price entering narrow consolidation and declining volatility, suggesting that downward momentum is weakening but has not yet transformed into upward momentum.

5. Identification of Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior

Synthesizing the volume-price, volatility, and phase analysis, the behavior of large investors can be inferred as follows:

1. 1. Distribution and Initial Selling (December-January): The several instances of upthrusts and declines on high volume within the high 94,000-97,000 range suggest that smart money may have been distributing using market liquidity.
2. 2. Forced Liquidations and Watchful Waiting During Accelerated Decline (Late January - Early February): The waterfall decline after breaking key support, accompanied by record volume, likely included forced liquidations of large leveraged positions (forced selling) rather than active short selling. Smart money was primarily observing or hedging during this period.
3. 3. Initial Absorption and Testing at Panic Lows (February 5th and after):
   • • Evidence of Absorption: The record volume on February 5th (VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO ranking 2nd in a decade) indicates a massive exchange of volume occurred at the extreme low near 62,345. Wyckoff theory posits that the end of a panic decline requires absorption by "large professional interests" to halt the fall. The subsequent "Automatic Rally" validates this.
   • • Testing Behavior: The high-volume decline ("Effort") on February 23rd, which failed to continue lower the next day ("No Result"), can be viewed as a "test" of the support near 64,000. Smart money may be testing the remaining supply pressure at this level in preparation for potential future actions. The current state of low-volume consolidation indicates that large capital is not entering aggressively but is assessing whether supply has truly been exhausted.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

• • Key Price Levels:
  • • Upper Resistance: 68,000 - 70,000 (upper boundary of recent consolidation range and area of MA_5D, MA_10D). Stronger resistance lies at 73,000 - 75,000 (MA_30D and the platform from which the late-January decline began).
  • • Lower Support: 62,000 - 63,000 (area of extreme lows formed during the February 5th panic selling). This is the market's last line of defense; a decisive break below would open new downside space.
  • • Current Focus: 64,000 - 65,000 (lower boundary of recent consolidation range and preliminary support).
• • Comprehensive Trading Signal and Operational Recommendations:
  • • Overall Assessment: Cautiously Bullish, Seeking Rebound Opportunities. The market has experienced a complete Distribution-Markdown-Panic Selling cycle, with historically significant volume appearing at extreme lows, suggesting the main decline wave may be nearing its end. The current phase is preliminary support following panic, but demand has not yet demonstrated sustainability and strength.
  • • Operational Recommendations:
    1. 1. Long Strategy (Left Side/Aggressive): Consider lightly testing long positions in the 63,500 - 64,500 range, with a strict stop-loss below 62,000. Entry signals should be accompanied by reversal patterns or volume-price divergences on lower timeframes.
    2. 2. Long Strategy (Right Side/Conservative): Wait for price to break above 68,000 (breaking out of the recent consolidation range) on increased volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO > 1.5), then enter on a pullback, with a stop-loss set below the low of the breakout candle. Target 73,000.
    3. 3. Short Strategy: The risk-reward ratio for chasing shorts is unfavorable at current levels. If the price rebounds to the 70,000-72,000 resistance zone and shows signs of stalling on high volume (long upper wicks, high volume but limited closing gains), consider deploying short positions on rallies, with a stop-loss set above 73,500.
• • Future Validation Points (To Confirm or Invalidate the Current Assessment):
  1. 1. Signals Confirming the Bullish Assessment:
     • • Price Action: The price holds and does not make new lows upon retesting the 64,000 area, forming a higher low (HL).
     • • Volume-Price Relationship: The emergence of a healthy rally pattern: "rising on high volume, falling on low volume," especially with significant volume expansion upon breaking 68,000.
     • • Volatility: The RSI_14 steadily recovers to the 40-50 neutral zone.
  2. 2. Signals Invalidating the Bullish Assessment:
     • • Price Action: The price decisively breaks below the 62,000 support level and fails to close back above it.
     • • Volume-Price Relationship: Any upward bounce within the 64,000-68,000 consolidation range consistently shows clear low-volume characteristics (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO persistently below 0.8), indicating weak demand.
     • • Phase Evolution: If the current consolidation is identified as "Secondary Distribution" rather than "Preliminary Support," it would precede a new decline. A signal for this would be the price's inability to break above 68,000 accompanied by stalling candlestick patterns near that level.

Disclaimer: This report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness in the content but makes no guarantee regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks, and investment requires caution. Any investment actions based on this report are taken at your own risk.

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