Very well, please review the in-depth quantitative analysis report based on the 399986 data you provided and historical ranking indicators, with the Wyckoff Method as its core.

Quantitative Analysis Report Based on the Wyckoff Method: Product Code 399986

Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Date: 2026-02-24
Core Methodology: Wyckoff Price-Volume Analysis

Dimension 1: Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-02-24, the underlying asset 399986 has an open price of 7153.62, a close price of 7101.83, a 5-day moving average (MA) of 7210.60, a 10-day MA of 7180.36, a 20-day MA of 7140.69. Day-to-day change: -0.25%, Weekly change: -0.25%, Monthly change: 0.18%, Quarterly change: -6.59%, Year-to-date change: -6.59%.

399986 Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
399986 Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  1. 1. Moving Average Alignment and Trend Judgment:
    • • Early Period to Mid-January (2025-12-26 to 2026-01-16): Price declined from approximately 7528 to 7228. During this period, all moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D, MA_20D, MA_30D, MA_60D) exhibited a bearish alignment (Price < MA_5D < MA_10D < MA_20D...), with price persistently below all MAs, confirming a clear downtrend.
    • • Mid to Late January (2026-01-19 to 2026-01-23): The downtrend accelerated, with price touching a low of 7032.57. Bearish MA alignment intensified, and slopes steepened.
    • • Rebound from February to Present (2026-01-26 to 2026-02-24): Price rebounded from the low, successively breaking above the MA_5D and MA_10D. As of the analysis date (2026-02-24), the price (7101.83) has recovered above the MA_5D (7210.60) and MA_10D (7180.36) but remains below the MA_20D (7140.69), MA_30D (7249.50), and MA_60D (7450.04). This indicates that the short-term downtrend has been contained and a rebound has emerged, but the medium-to-long-term trend structure (MA_20D/30D/60D) remains bearish.
  2. 2. Market Phase Inference (Based on Wyckoff Cycle):
    • • 2026-01-14 to 2026-01-23: The market experienced a typical Panic Decline (Selling Climax). Characteristics include: a significant price drop (from 7530 to 7032), a sharp surge in volume (e.g., on 2026-01-14, VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO=1.58, a recent high), and RSI_14 hitting an extreme low of 23.87 (historically ranked 18th for extreme oversold levels), aligning with the "panic selling" characteristics in Wyckoff theory.
    • • 2026-01-26 to 2026-02-05: Following the panic low, price rebounded, notably on January 29th and February 5th, showing signs of "rising on high volume" (see Dimension Two analysis). This corresponds to the Automatic Rally (AR) or Secondary Test (ST) phase—a natural rebound after panic and an initial process of testing underlying support.
    • • 2026-02-09 to Present (2026-02-24): Price has been oscillating within the 7200-7100 range, with volume showing contraction (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO declined from 1.44 to 0.66). Combined with the price's failure to effectively break through higher resistance, this phase likely belongs to consolidation or re-testing within an Accumulation range, as the market attempts to confirm the stability of the bottom structure. Overall, the market is currently likely in the early stage of "Accumulation" following the panic decline, but the structure is not yet complete and requires more evidence for verification.

Dimension 2: Price-Volume Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-02-24, the underlying asset 399986 has an open price of 7153.62, a close price of 7101.83, a volume of 2,750,707,600, a day-to-day change of -0.25%, a volume of 2,750,707,600, a 7-day average volume of 3,596,002,058.71, and a 7-day volume ratio of 0.76.

399986 Price-Volume Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
399986 Price-Volume Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  1. 1. Key Day Analysis (Representing Large Trader Activity):
    • • High-Volume Decline (Supply Dominated):
      • • 2026-01-14: Price fell -1.91% on a huge volume of 5.198 billion (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO=1.58), one of the largest single-day declines recently. This is a classic Selling Climax (SC) day, where supply (selling pressure) appeared overwhelmingly.
      • • 2026-01-16: Price fell -1.45% on a volume of 4.480 billion (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO=1.34). Consecutive high-volume declines confirmed the strength of the downtrend and the persistence of supply.
    • • High-Volume Advance (Demand Dominated):
      • • 2026-01-29: Price surged +1.55% on an astonishing volume of 6.431 billion (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO=1.78). This was the day with the highest absolute volume during the analysis period and occurred after the panic decline, fitting the Stopping Action or buying climax. Historical ranking data confirms that the "Weekly Maximum Trading Value" on this day ranked 14th in nearly 10 years, indicating this was an extremely rare large-scale capital inflow event, strongly suggesting substantial buying (accumulation) by large investors at low levels.
      • • 2026-02-05: Price rose +1.60% on a volume of 4.982 billion (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO=1.26), constituting a Sign of Strength (SOS), demonstrating demand again.
    • • Low-Volume Rebound/Advance (Warning of Insufficient Demand):
      • • 2026-02-10, 02-11: Price saw consecutive small gains, but volume shrank to 3.206 billion and 2.684 billion respectively (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO of 0.68 and 0.65). This indicates the price advance lacked broad buying support, showing feeble demand.
      • • 2026-02-24 (Latest Trading Day): Price slightly declined -0.25% on a volume of 2.751 billion (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO=0.66), maintaining low levels. "Low-volume consolidation" near previous rebound highs suggests waning upward momentum.
  2. 2. Supply-Demand Pattern Conclusion:
    • • Mid to Late January: The market was dominated by absolute supply, forming a panic sell-off.
    • • Late January to Early February: In the extremely low price zone, demand began entering the market on a large scale (marked by the massive buying on January 29th), successfully halting the downtrend, and a critical reversal in the supply-demand pattern occurred.
    • • Mid-February to Present: After the initial strong intervention, demand has failed to sustain or expand. Recent price rebounds have been accompanied by contracting volume, indicating limited new buying interest. The market may have entered a consolidation period with relative supply-demand balance, where buyers are absorbing previous profit-taking and overhead selling pressure, while selling pressure has also temporarily eased.

Dimension 3: Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of 2026-02-24, the underlying asset 399986 has an open price of 7153.62, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.12, a 7-day intraday volatility volume ratio of 0.77, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.12, a 7-day historical volatility volume ratio of 0.69, and an RSI of 40.10.

399986 Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
399986 Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  1. 1. Volatility Analysis:
    • • Panic Phase (2026-01-14 to 2026-01-23): The Parkinson intraday volatility (PARKINSON_VOL_7D) surged from 0.13 to above 0.17, and historical volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) also rose from 0.18 to above 0.20. Short-term volatility expanded significantly relative to medium-long term (e.g., HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D > 1.26, PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D > 1.20), clearly indicating extreme panic and instability in market sentiment.
    • • Rebound and Current Phase (2026-02-09 to Present): Volatility indicators have comprehensively and rapidly converged. The latest trading day's (2026-02-24) PARKINSON_VOL_7D has fallen to 0.12, and HIS_VOLA_7D to 0.12, with their ratios to the 60-day volatility falling below 0.8. This shows market sentiment has calmed from panic and entered a low-volatility consolidation state.
  2. 2. Overbought/Oversold (RSI):
    • • Sentiment Low Point: On 2026-01-23, RSI_14 hit 23.87, in a severely oversold zone. Historical ranking data shows this was the 18th lowest "Weekly Minimum RSI" in nearly 10 years, further confirming the extreme pessimism and rarity of market sentiment at that time.
    • • Current Sentiment: RSI_14 is currently at 40.10, having recovered from the extreme oversold zone to a neutral-to-weak area, indicating that short-term downward momentum has been sufficiently released but has not yet entered strong territory.

Dimension 4: Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Momentum Trends:
    • • Weak Long-term and Medium-term Momentum: Year-to-date (YTD) return is -6.59%, and quarter-to-date (QTD) return is -6.59%, showing medium-to-long-term momentum remains negative.
    • • Short-term Momentum Repair: Week-to-date (WTD) return is -0.25%, and month-to-date (MTD) return is +0.18%. This indicates that the short-term downtrend has stopped and turned into faintly positive momentum, consistent with the technical observation of price rebounding above short-term moving averages.
  • • Conclusion: After suffering severe medium-term momentum damage, the market shows signs of stabilization and initial repair in short-term momentum, but has not yet formed sufficiently strong upward momentum to reverse the medium-to-long-term downtrend.

Dimension 5: Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior Identification

  1. 1. Accumulation Behavior Identification:
    • • Core Evidence: The extreme high-volume advance on 2026-01-29 (historically ranked 14th). Such rare volume accompanying a price rise at low levels following a panic decline is a classic signal of "large investor accumulation" in Wyckoff theory. Smart money utilized public panic to absorb a large amount of sold shares at low prices.
  2. 2. Current Behavior Inference:
    • • Consolidation and Testing Post-Accumulation: After completing large-scale preliminary accumulation in late January, the price rebounded near 7200. The recent significant volume contraction (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO generally below 1.0) suggests the smart money's large-scale active buying may have temporarily paused.
    • • Intent Analysis: Smart money may currently be: a) Observing market reaction, testing if overhead selling pressure (supply) has diminished; b) Intentionally controlling the buying pace to avoid pushing prices up too quickly, thus continuing to collect shares at lower costs during consolidation; c) Awaiting new catalysts or further improvement in market structure. The recent "price rising on low volume" divergence phenomenon is a sign that smart money is temporarily on the sidelines or distributing some short-term profitable shares.

Dimension 6: Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Comprehensive Trading Signals

  1. 1. Key Price Levels:
    • • Support Level 1 (Strong): 7032 – 7059 Zone. This is the low zone formed during the January panic decline (2026-01-23, 2026-01-26) and the starting point of large-scale accumulation, holding significant psychological and technical support.
    • • Support Level 2 (Secondary): 7100 – 7120 Zone. The lower boundary of the recent price consolidation range, also near the 20-day MA (7140).
    • • Resistance Level 1 (Strong): 7250 – 7275 Zone. The high zone of the February rebound (2026-02-05, 2026-02-10), also the location of the 30-day MA (7249), where price has been rejected multiple times recently.
    • • Resistance Level 2 (Secondary): 7400 – 7450 Zone. The 60-day MA (7450) and the lower boundary of the early January consolidation platform, a key resistance that needs to be overcome for a medium-term trend reversal.
  2. 2. Comprehensive Wyckoff Trading Signals and Operational Suggestions:
    • • Market Phase Judgment: The market has most likely completed the Panic Decline (SC) and the initial Automatic Rally (AR), and is currently in a potential re-testing or consolidation stage within an Accumulation range. The landmark event (historically significant buying on January 29th) provides strong evidence for a bottoming area.
    • • Core Contradiction and Risk: Positive signals (historically significant accumulation) coexist with negative signals (recent divergence between price and volume on the rebound). This suggests the bottom formation may be complex, not a V-shaped reversal.
    • • Operational Strategy Suggestions (Conservative to Neutral):
      • • Long Strategy (Suitable for existing holders or those seeking long-term positioning):
        • • Ideal Entry Zone: Wait for price to retreat to the main support zone (7050-7120) and show Wyckoff buy signals such as low-volume stabilization (volume contracts to recent lows, price stops making new lows) or another high-volume advance. This can be considered a low-risk entry/add-on point.
        • • Stop-Loss Setting: Strictly set below the key support level at 7032 (e.g., 7000).
        • • Target Outlook: Initial target looks toward the first resistance zone near 7275. If it can break through with volume, then the next target is the 7400-7450 zone.
      • • Short Strategy (Suitable for short-term traders):
        • • Against the backdrop of current price-volume divergence, if price attacks the 7250-7275 resistance zone again and shows clear signs of upper shadows, stalling, or high-volume decline, it could be considered a short-term selling opportunity.
        • • Stop-loss set above 7275.
        • • Target the 7100 support zone.
      • • Wait-and-See Strategy: Given the market is in a key balance zone with unclear direction, maintaining a wait-and-see stance is also a rational choice.
  3. 3. Future Validation Points (Key to Confirming or Invalidating Current Judgment):
    • • Bullish Validation: Price breaks through and holds above the 7250-7275 resistance zone on high volume (VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO > 1.2), preferably accompanied by a "golden cross" where short-term MAs (MA_5D/MA_10D) cross above medium-term MAs (MA_20D/MA_30D). This would confirm successful accumulation and the start of an uptrend.
    • • Bearish Validation: Price breaks below the key 7032 support on high volume with a weak rebound. This would invalidate the current accumulation hypothesis, potentially leading the market into a new downtrend.
    • • Neutral/Continued Consolidation: Price continues to oscillate without volume between 7100 and 7275, with volatility continuing to converge. Then the market will continue constructing its bottom structure, awaiting clearer breakout signals.

Disclaimer: This report is based on objective analysis of publicly available historical data and Wyckoff theory. All conclusions are derived from data patterns and do not constitute specific investment advice. Financial markets carry risks. Investment decisions should be made based on individual risk tolerance and are recommended to involve independent judgment or consultation with professional advisors.

Thank you for your attention! Daily Wyckoff price-volume market interpretation is published promptly at 8:00 AM before the market opens. Your comments and shares are greatly appreciated. Let's work together to discern market signals.