20260224 399934 Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

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Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report: 399934

Analysis Date: 2026-02-24
Report Generation Time: 2026-02-24
Analysis Period: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Core Methodology: Wyckoff Market Principles & Quantitative Data Analysis

1. Trend Analysis & Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-02-24, the security 399934 has an opening price of 6019.80, a closing price of 5968.51, a 5-day moving average of 6083.51, a 10-day MA of 6068.05, a 20-day MA of 6059.61, a daily change of -0.36%, a weekly change of -0.36%, a monthly change of -1.38%, a quarterly change of -4.80%, and a year-to-date change of -4.80%.

• • Moving Average Alignment & Trend Determination:
  • • As of 2026-02-24, the price (5968.51) has been below all key moving averages (MA_5D: 6083.51, MA_20D: 6059.61, MA_60D: 6176.92) for several consecutive days. Short-term MAs (MA_5D, MA_10D) have turned downward, medium-term MAs (MA_20D, MA_30D) have flattened and begun to decline, while the long-term MA (MA_60D) remains in an uptrend but with a slowing slope.
  • • Conclusion: The market exhibits a clear bearish alignment, with a medium-to-short-term downtrend. Although the long-term trend (MA_60D) is not completely reversed, the price has broken below its support, indicating the uptrend is under significant challenge.
• • Price Action & Market Phase:
  • • During the analysis period, the price went through a process of "advance - accelerated topping - sharp decline - consolidation seeking a bottom". The high-volume surge in early January (01-05, 01-06) pushed the index to a local high of 6501.13, followed by significant high-volume declines on January 7th, 8th, 14th, and 16th, forming a clear technical top.
  • • Entering February, the price consolidated within a narrow range around the 6000 level with shrinking volume. The lows (5988.66, 5968.51) gradually decreased, and rebounds lacked strength.
  • • Wyckoff Phase Inference: Combined with subsequent volume-price analysis, we infer that the rapid rally in early January likely marked the final stage of "Distribution" or the end of "Markup". The current low-volume, low-volatility consolidation, coupled with the RSI entering a low zone, more closely resembles the final stage of "Markdown" or the initial stage of "Accumulation". The market is testing and rebuilding the supply-demand equilibrium within a relatively low price range.

2. Volume-Price Relationship & Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-02-24, the security 399934 has an opening price of 6019.80, a closing price of 5968.51, a daily volume of 5400449700, a change of -0.36%, and a 7-day average volume of 6207224042.86, resulting in a 7-day volume ratio of 0.87.

• • Key Volume-Price Day Identification (Wyckoff Perspective):
  • • Demand-Driven Advance (Sign of Strength - SOS): On 2026-01-05 and 2026-01-06, prices rose 1.46% and 2.15% respectively, with volume ratios (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO) of 1.41 and 1.93, indicating significant high-volume advances, signaling strong demand inflow. This was the acceleration signal of the prior uptrend.
  • • Supply-Driven Decline (Sign of Weakness - SOW): On 2026-01-08 (-1.83%) and 2026-01-14 (-1.46%), volume ratios (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO) were 1.28 and 1.73 respectively, indicating high-volume declines, clearly showing overwhelming supply (selling pressure) over demand. The large bearish candlestick on January 8th, in particular, negated the previous two days' gains, serving as a key warning for a potential trend reversal.
  • • Panic/Climactic Selling (Selling Climax): 2026-01-14 and 2026-01-29 warrant comparison. January 14th was a high-volume breakdown decline, which can be seen as an acceleration of the downtrend. In contrast, on January 29th, following a series of declines, the price rose 2.04% on extremely high volume (VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO=1.65, a recent high), a classic scene of intense buying and selling. Within the Wyckoff framework, this could indicate large-scale accumulation following panic selling (Secondary Test or Automatic Rally). The volume hitting a new high relative to the two-month (60-day average) level suggests significant buying interest at that level.
  • • Low-Demand Rebound/Drying-Up Supply Decline: This characterizes most of February's action. For example, the declines from 2026-02-10 to 2026-02-13 and on 2026-02-24 had volume ratios (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO) below 0.7, indicating low-volume declines. This suggests that active selling pressure has eased, but demand has not entered in force either, placing the market in a state of low-energy balance or slow attrition. Notably, on 2026-02-11, the VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO=0.54, with its "Weekly Minimum 14-Day Volume Ratio" ranking 17th in the past 10 years, indicates the current market's lack of activity has reached a historical extreme level.
• • Supply-Demand Transition Summary:
  • • Early January: Demand > Supply (driving the advance).
  • • Mid-to-late January: Supply >> Demand (triggering the sharp decline).
  • • Late January (29th): Fierce contest between Supply and Demand, with Demand emerging at lower levels.
  • • February to date: Both Supply and Demand have weakened, the market has entered a low-energy balance period, but the slowly declining price center hints at a slight supply advantage.

3. Volatility & Market Sentiment

As of 2026-02-24, the security 399934 has an opening price of 6019.80, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.11 with a ratio of 0.69, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.13 with a ratio of 0.70, and an RSI of 38.62.

• • Volatility Level & Structure:
  • • Volatility Spike Period: From early to mid-January, accompanying the sharp price swings, short-term historical volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) surged from 0.04 to over 0.26. The ratio of short-term volatility (7D) to medium-term volatility (14D, 21D) (HIS_VOLA_RATIO) reached historical extremes. Data shows that on 2026-01-09 and 2026-01-13, the HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D reached 1.4516 and 1.4387, ranking 1st and 5th highest in the past 10 years, respectively. Similarly, HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_21D also ranked within the top 20 historically. This indicates the market experienced extreme and rare sentiment swings and price dispersion in the short term, aligning with characteristics of the "Distribution" or "Panic" phase.
  • • Volatility Contraction Period: Entering February, volatilities across all horizons systematically declined. As of February 24th, HIS_VOLA_7D decreased to 0.131, and Parkinson_VOL_7D decreased to 0.106. The short-term volatility ratios (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D=0.70, PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_14D=0.69) are both significantly below 1, indicating volatility has markedly contracted from extreme levels, with market sentiment shifting from panic/euphoria back to calm, even bordering on lethargy.
• • Overbought/Oversold Status:
  • • RSI_14 reached a local high of 73.23 on January 6th, entering the overbought zone, after which the price topped and reversed.
  • • During the late-January decline, the RSI bottomed at 32.09 (January 23rd), nearing the oversold zone.
  • • The current RSI is 38.62, situated in a weak zone but not at extreme oversold levels. This matches the state of low-volume attrition, indicating persistent but not intensifying selling pressure, and bearish but non-panicked sentiment.

4. Relative Strength & Momentum Performance

• • Momentum Cycle Analysis:
  • • Short-term (WTD/MTD): The most recent weekly return is -0.36%, and the most recent monthly return is -1.38%, both negative, indicating downward short-term momentum.
  • • Medium-term (QTD/YTD): The quarter-to-date and year-to-date returns are both -4.80%, significantly negative, confirming the medium-term downtrend.
  • • Conclusion: Momentum is negative across all observed horizons, mutually confirming the bearishly aligned price trend. The market currently lacks intrinsic upward momentum.

5. Large Trader ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

• • "Distribution" Signs in Early January: During the price surge to the top (~6500 level), although accompanied by high-volume advances (demand), the subsequent "high-volume decline" on January 8th was the key signal. Smart money likely utilized the market's euphoria to distribute holdings near the top, transferring shares to momentum-chasing traders.
• • "Accumulation" Probe in Late January: The "high-volume rebound" on 2026-01-29 is an exceptionally important signal. Following an approximately 10% price correction, such enormous volume appearing near the 6000 psychological level, coupled with a positive close, strongly suggests large-scale capital was absorbing supply below a key psychological level. This aligns with the smart money accumulation behavior during the "Secondary Test" or "Automatic Rally" phase following a "Selling Climax" in Wyckoff theory.
• • "Testing" & "Dormancy" in February: The persistent low-volume consolidation in February, with an inability to stage an effective rebound, may imply:
  1. 1. After the preliminary accumulation in late January, smart money is no longer actively pushing prices higher but is instead testing natural selling pressure, observing whether prices would continue to decline without significant buying support (testing support validity).
  2. 2. The overall market has entered a dormant phase, with both smart money and retail investors adopting a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer fundamental or technical catalysts.
• • Key Inference: The operational intent of large traders may have shifted from "distribution at highs" in January to "exploratory accumulation at lows". However, the accumulation process may not yet be complete, and the market is likely in a "Shakeout" or "Test" phase, creating a pessimistic atmosphere with slight breakdowns to shake out weak holders and gather cheaper shares.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis & Trading Signals

• • Key Price Levels:
  • • Near-term Resistance: 6059.61 (MA_20D), 6083.51 (MA_5D), with stronger resistance in the 6120-6150 range (early-February rebound highs and prior consolidation platform).
  • • Near-term Support: 5968.51 (current price, also a recent low). The key psychological support lies in the 5900-5950 zone. A break below this would target earlier price consolidation areas.
  • • Important Reference Levels: 5988.66 (January 26th low, slightly breached), 5990.01 (February 13th close). Holding or breaking these levels significantly impacts short-term sentiment.
• • Integrated Wyckoff Event Analysis & Trading Signals:
  • • Current Phase Assessment: The market is likely in a transitional stage from the "late Markdown phase" to "Accumulation range formation". Prices are consolidating at lows with shrinking volume, volatility is contracting, and smart money has shown tentative buying interest without launching an offensive.
  • • **Core Trading Signal: ** Observe / Await Confirmation. Initiating long positions currently lacks trend and momentum support. Shorting carries the risk of falling into a "trap" due to low-volume lows, extremely low volatility, and potential smart money accumulation.
  • • Specific Operational Suggestions:
    1. 1. Long Strategy (Early Entry / Probing): Aggressive traders could consider a small position in the 5950-6000 zone, using a decisive close below 5900 as a stop-loss. However, a safer entry point requires a confirming "Jump Across the Creek" signal, namely a strong, high-volume (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO>1.2) break and sustained close above 6059 (MA_20D), which would suggest demand has regained control and the accumulation phase may be ending.
    2. 2. Short Strategy: Higher risk. If the price rebounds to the 6100-6150 resistance zone and again exhibits "high-volume stalling" or "rejection from highs" (re-emergence of supply), this could present a high-probability shorting opportunity, with a stop-loss placed above the recent rebound high.
    3. 3. Observation Strategy (Recommended): Maintain a neutral stance, awaiting the appearance of the key signals mentioned above. The most prominent feature of the current market is "low volatility" and "low volume". A breakout from this state typically signals the beginning of a new trend.
• • Future Validation Points:
  1. 1. Bullish Validation: The price finds support near 5968 and produces a high-volume bullish candlestick (demand returns), followed by several consecutive closes above 6059 (MA_20D).
  2. 2. Bearish Validation: The price continues its slow attrition from current levels and breaks below the key 5900 support on high volume, opening the path for further decline.
  3. 3. Continued Consolidation Validation: The price continues to fluctuate narrowly between 5960-6100 with sustained or further shrinking volume, indicating the market remains in a trendless accumulation/distribution structure, requiring extended observation.

Disclaimer: This report is based on historical data and specific analytical methods. It is intended for research and discussion purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risks; invest with caution.

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