Good. As a quantitative trading researcher proficient in the Wyckoff Method, I will draft a comprehensive and in-depth quantitative analysis report based on the data and historical ranking information you provided for 000986.SH.

Quantitative Analysis Report

Product Code: 000986.SH
Analysis Date Range: 2025-12-26 to 2026-02-24
Report Generation Date: 2026-02-24

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of February 24, 2026, the target 000986.SH has an open price of 2643.07, a close price of 2717.63, with moving averages of 2623.88 (5-day), 2583.05 (10-day), 2539.18 (20-day). Its daily return is 4.79%, weekly return 4.79%, monthly return 3.92%, quarterly return 16.42%, and annual return 16.42%.

000986.SH Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
000986.SH Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Trend Assessment: As of the analysis date (2026-02-24), the price closed at 2717.63, significantly above all short-term and long-term moving averages (MA_5D: 2623.88, MA_10D: 2583.05, MA_20D: 2539.18, MA_30D: 2486.31, MA_60D: 2400.72), presenting a clear bullish alignment pattern. Since the price effectively broke above the MA_60D around January 26, 2026, an uptrend was established and has continued to date.
  • • Moving Average Crossover Signals: Key bullish crossovers occurred during this period. In late January, the MA_5D successively crossed above the MA_20D, MA_30D, and MA_60D, followed by similar crossovers by the MA_10D, forming a cluster of "golden crosses," providing strong technical support for the medium-term uptrend.
  • • Inferred Market Phase (Based on Wyckoff Theory): Combined with price action and volume-price data, the market experienced two phases within the analysis period:
    • • Accumulation and Breakout Phase (Late December 2025 - Mid-to-late January 2026): The price oscillated repeatedly within the 2300-2400 range. During this period, there were high-volume rallies (e.g., 2026-01-06, +1.94%, Volume Ratio 1.65) and low-volume pullbacks (e.g., 2026-01-15, Volume Ratio 0.70), consistent with "shaking out" and "testing" characteristics. The phase concluded with a massive breakout (on Jan 22, volume of 4.134 billion, ranking 17th over the past decade) above the resistance of the previous range (around 2400), marking the end of accumulation and the beginning of the markup phase.
    • • Markup Phase (Late January 2026 - February 24, 2026): The price entered a steep upward channel, consecutively reaching new highs, with overall trading volume remaining elevated. The closing price of 2717.63 on February 24 set the highest closing price in nearly a decade (Historical Rank: 1), confirming the market is in a strong markup phase. However, note that the volume during the recent rally (after mid-February) has contracted compared to the massive volume in late January, warranting attention to the sustainability of the trend.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of February 24, 2026, the target 000986.SH has an open price of 2643.07, a close price of 2717.63, volume of 3851425800, daily return of 4.79%, 7-day average volume of 3623603800.00, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.06.

000986.SH Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
000986.SH Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Strong Demand-Dominated Signals:
    1. 1. Initiating Signal (2026-01-28, 2026-01-29): The price surged by 4.04% and 1.57% respectively, accompanied by a sharp spike in volume to 6.070 billion and 6.854 billion shares. The turnover value reached 51.545 billion and 54.405 billion yuan respectively, with the latter setting the highest turnover value in nearly a decade (Historical Rank: 1). This is typical "accumulation behavior," indicating extremely strong demand and significant entry by smart money.
    2. 2. Breakout Confirmation (2026-01-22): The price rose 2.54% with a volume of 4.134 billion (21D Volume Ratio: 1.56), confirming the breakout from the previous consolidation range and effective absorption of supply.
  • • Supply Emergence and Panic Selling:
    1. 1. Distribution Test (2026-01-23, 2026-02-13): Following a new short-term high, the price fell by 1.18% and 2.92% respectively on the subsequent days, with volume remaining high (3.997 billion, 2.970 billion). This "high-volume stall or decline" is a preliminary sign of supply emerging, particularly the decline on Feb 13 with relatively high volume, indicating profit-taking.
    2. 2. Panic Selling (Selling Climax) (2026-02-02): The price plummeted 4.93% (daily decline ranking 20th over the past decade) on a volume of 4.330 billion shares. Despite the severe decline, turnover remained high at 36.715 billion yuan (Historical Rank: 10), and the price opened lower but closed higher the next day. This aligns with the "Selling Climax" characteristic, where a large amount of retail supply was sold in panic but absorbed by strong demand at lower levels, leading to a swift price rebound.
  • • Demand Resurgence (2026-02-24): Following a pullback, the price surged again by 4.79% on significant volume (385 million shares), with a turnover of 34.411 billion yuan (Historical Rank: 13). This indicates that after a "secondary test," demand has regained dominance, pushing the price to new highs.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of February 24, 2026, the target 000986.SH has an open price of 2643.07, 7-day intraday volatility of 0.24, 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 0.75, 7-day historical volatility of 0.42, 7-day historical volatility ratio of 0.80, and an RSI of 65.78.

000986.SH Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
000986.SH Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Extremes: During the period of剧烈 market movements from late January to early February, short-term volatility (7-day) was significantly higher than medium-to-long-term volatility (30/60-day). For example, HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D reached 2.35 on 2026-02-02 (Historical Rank: 8), and PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D reached 2.08 on 2026-02-02 (Historical Rank: 17). This clearly reveals that market panic and uncertainty reached extreme levels at that time.
  • • Volatility Convergence and Sentiment Normalization: As of the analysis date, the aforementioned volatility ratios have significantly declined (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D: 1.36, PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D: 1.20), indicating market sentiment has recovered from extreme panic, and volatility has returned to more rational levels.
  • • RSI Overbought Confirmation: The RSI_14 reached the overbought zone at 75.34 on January 29, followed by a price correction, validating extreme sentiment. The current RSI is 65.78, within a strong zone but not at extreme overbought levels, leaving room for further price appreciation.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Exceptionally Strong Short-Term Momentum: The product's recent momentum performance has been exceptionally strong. WTD_RETURN (4.79%), MTD_RETURN (3.92%), and YTD (16.42%) are all significantly positive. Notably, the TTM_12 return reached 28.07%, demonstrating very strong annual momentum.
  • • Momentum-Trend-Volume Synergy: The robust momentum indicators corroborate the established uptrend and the demand-dominated volume-price behavior (e.g., massive-volume rallies), confirming the validity and strength of the current advance.

5. Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior Identification

  • • Accumulation and Position Building (January 2026): Smart money played the role of the primary buyer during the market oscillation and breakout in mid-to-late January. Particularly on January 28-30, the historically massive turnover values (Ranks: 1, 3, 4) indicate large institutional investors were actively and concentratedly building positions, an action impossible for retail investors alone.
  • • Absorbing Panic Selling (Early February 2026): The massive sell-off on February 2, accompanied by enormous turnover (Rank: 10), indicates powerful capital systematically absorbing supply at low levels. Smart money utilized market panic to absorb shares sold by retail investors, a classic demand intervention following a "Selling Climax."
  • • Current Intent: While the price reached a new high on February 24, the volume (3.851 billion shares) and turnover (34.411 billion yuan), though above recent averages, did not surpass the historical extremes of late January. This may suggest: 1) The uptrend continues, but smart money's willingness to chase the rally has slightly diminished; or 2) The market has entered a markup phase driven by trend followers (retail, quantitative funds), with smart money potentially shifting to a观望 stance or conducting "re-tests" at key levels. Vigilance is required for potential "high-volume stalling" distribution behavior.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

000986.SH Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
000986.SH Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
  • • Key Support Levels (Support):
    • • S1: 2585 - 2594 zone. This is the low area formed during the most recent pullback (Feb 13) and is near the MA_10D level. A break below this zone would weaken the short-term upward momentum.
    • • S2: 2485 - 2500 zone. The bottom area formed during the early February panic selling and subsequent consolidation, also the starting point of the prior breakout, representing strong support.
  • • Key Resistance Levels (Resistance):
    • • R1: 2722 (already touched). The historical high set on February 24 (Historical High Price Rank: 4), acting as immediate resistance.
    • • Higher resistance needs to be dynamically confirmed based on subsequent price action.
  • • Composite Trading Signal:
    • • Primary Signal: Cautiously Bullish. The primary trend is upward, the smart money's cost zone is clear (approximately below 2500), and a successful "Selling Climax - Secondary Test" process was just completed.
    • • Risks: The price is at an absolute historical high, and the recent volume-price relationship (new high price without a new high volume) requires close monitoring for signs of "increasing supply."
  • • Operational Recommendations:
    • • Potential Long Opportunity: If the price can stabilize above 2700 in the coming sessions, or if it pulls back on low volume to the 2650-2680 zone before resuming its advance on higher volume, it could be considered a trend continuation signal.
    • • Stop-Loss Reference: Any long position should consider placing a stop-loss below S1 (2585). A high-volume break below this level may signify a significant setback for the uptrend.
    • • Exit/Monitoring Signal: If the price exhibits "single-day or consecutive days of high-volume stalling (high volume but flat or lower closing price)" at high levels (e.g., above 2700), or a "single-day massive volume with a long upper shadow," these are strong potential distribution warning signals, warranting consideration for reducing or exiting positions.

Future Validation Points:

  1. 1. Demand Validation: Can the price maintain above 2700 within the next 3-5 trading days? Are pullbacks accompanied by low volume and do not break S1?
  2. 2. Supply Validation: Does a divergence appear where "the price rises to new highs, but the VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO is consistently below 1.0"?
  3. 3. Volatility Validation: Does short-term volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) spike abnormally again, aligning with a price decline (indicating renewed panic)?

Disclaimer: The content of this report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. While the author strives for objectivity and fairness, no guarantees are made regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks; investment requires caution. Any investment actions based on this report are undertaken at one's own risk.

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