Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report: XRPUSDT

Product Code: XRPUSDT
Analysis Date Range: 2025-11-10 to 2026-01-09
Report Generation Date: 2026-01-10

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of January 09, 2026, the subject XRPUSDT had an open price of 2.12, a close price of 2.08, a 5-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, a 10-day MA of 2.07, a 20-day MA of 1.97, a daily change of -1.86%, a weekly change of +3.83%, a monthly change of +13.10%, a quarterly change of +13.10%, and a yearly change of +13.10%.

XRPUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
XRPUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Moving Average Alignment and Trend Judgment:
    At the end of the analysis period (2026-01-09), the price (2.0837) has fallen below the 5-day MA (2.2064) but remains above both the 20-day MA (1.9710) and the 60-day MA (2.0638). The short and medium-term MAs (MA_5 > MA_20) are aligned bullishly, but the MA_20 and MA_60 remain in a bearish alignment (MA_20 < MA_60). This indicates that the market is in a mid-term rebound and recovery phase following a long-term downtrend. On January 5th, the price strongly broke above all MAs, but a pullback has since occurred.
  • • Moving Average Crossovers and Key Signals:
    During the rally from January 2nd to January 5th, the MA_5 rapidly crossed above both the MA_20 and MA_30, issuing a clear short-term bullish signal. The current flattening of the MA_5 and the price retracement represent a "test" or "automatic reaction" to this breakout signal.
  • • Price Action and Inferred Market Phase (Based on Wyckoff):
    Observing the entire cycle, market behavior can be divided into three phases:
    1. 1. Distribution and Decline (2025-11-10 to 2025-12-18): The price declined continuously from 2.526 to 1.8076, accompanied by multiple high-volume down days (e.g., Nov 13, Nov 20-21), aligning with characteristics of "Distribution" and "Panic Selling."
    2. 2. Preliminary Accumulation and Base Building (2025-12-19 to 2025-12-31): The price consolidated within the 1.80-1.95 range with extremely low volume. Key Data: On December 28th, the volume-to-60-day-average ratio (0.208) ranked as the 17th lowest in nearly a decade, and the 7-day Parkinson volatility (0.2864) ranked 18th lowest in nearly a decade. This indicates extremely depressed sentiment, selling exhaustion, and entry into an "Accumulation Range."
    3. 3. Demand Emergence and Rally (2026-01-02 to 2026-01-09): The massive-volume (VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO=1.03) 6.76% rally on January 2nd was a clear "Demand-dominated rally" (Sign of Strength, SOS). The subsequent massive-volume (VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO=1.80) 12.29% surge on January 5th confirmed the new trend. The subsequent pullback can be viewed as a "Secondary Test" or "automatic reaction" following the rally.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of January 09, 2026, the subject XRPUSDT had an open price of 2.12, a close price of 2.08, a volume of 112,200,468.00, a daily change of -1.86%, a volume of 112,200,468.00, a 7-day average volume of 152,617,286.74, and a 7-day volume ratio of 0.74.

XRPUSDT Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
XRPUSDT Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Key Demand Days (Demand Dominated):
    • • 2026-01-02: Price +6.76%, volume 127M, which is 1.03 times the 60-day average volume. This is the first significant high-volume rally following the downtrend, marking a clear initial signal of demand entering the market.
    • • 2026-01-05: Price +12.29%, volume 210M, which is 1.80 times the 60-day average volume. A massive, long bullish candle, confirming demand is overwhelmingly dominant, representing the "SOS climax point."
  • • Key Supply Days/Lack of Demand Days (Supply Dominated / Lack of Demand):
    • • 2025-11-20 / 2025-11-21: Prices fell 5.21% and 2.45% respectively, with volumes of 295M and 349M, significantly exceeding the 60-day average (1.92x and 2.22x). This is typical "Panic Selling" during a downtrend, with heavy supply flooding the market.
    • • 2026-01-07 / 2026-01-08: Within the uptrend, prices fell 6.01% and 1.96% respectively, with volumes of 116M and 157M, still above recent average volume. This constitutes a "Test for Supply" following the rally. Particularly on January 8th, the price decline occurred with significant volume, warranting attention to whether supply persists.
  • • Supply-Demand Transition Judgment:
    From extreme low-volume basing (late December), to high-volume initiation (early January), to low-volume pullback (Jan 9th volume down 46.6% from Jan 5th), the volume-price structure presents a classic "Accumulation-Rally-Reaction" pattern. The current low-volume pullback (Jan 9th) suggests supply is not appearing on a large scale. The pullback is likely driven by short-term profit-taking rather than new selling pressure.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of January 09, 2026, the subject XRPUSDT had an open price of 2.12, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.79, a 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 1.32, a 7-day historical volatility of 1.09, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 1.32, and an RSI of 53.46.

XRPUSDT Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
XRPUSDT Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Levels and Changes:
    • • Bottoming Phase: In late December, both HIS_VOLA_7D and PARKINSON_VOL_7D dropped to cycle lows (0.45-0.68), indicating depressed sentiment and converging volatility.
    • • Rally Initiation and Acceleration: From January 2nd to January 8th, short-term volatility spiked sharply. HIS_VOLA_7D rose from 0.53 to 1.09, and PARKINSON_VOL_7D rose from 0.41 to 0.86. The ratio of short-term (7-day) to long-term (60-day) volatility (HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D) reached a high of 1.68, indicating rapidly ignited sentiment and a trend acceleration phase.
    • • Current State: On January 9th, volatility has slightly receded but remains elevated. The surge in volatility coincided with the high-volume rally, further confirming the validity of the trend change.
  • • RSI Overbought/Oversold Validation:
    • • At the lows around December 15-18, the RSI_14 touched the 31-34 zone, indicating oversold conditions, aligning with the price bottom.
    • • On January 5th, RSI_14 surged to 74.35, entering the overbought zone. The subsequent price pullback brought the RSI back down to 53.46, a neutral-bullish zone. This indicates a cooling of short-term overheating sentiment, providing room for further healthy advance.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Periodic Return Analysis:
    • • Strong Short-Term Momentum: The WTD_RETURN (Weekly) is +3.83%, and MTD_RETURN (Monthly) is +13.10%, showing very strong short-term upward momentum.
    • • Mid-Term Reversal Established: Although QTD_RETURN and YTD_RETURN are also +13.10% (as the period started on January 1st), considering the strong rebound from the deep decline in November-December, the mid-term downward momentum has been decisively reversed.
    • • Momentum and Volume-Price Validation: The strong short-term momentum (WTD, MTD) perfectly corroborates the high-volume rally in early January, indicating the current advance has solid volume foundation and momentum support.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Based on Wyckoff events and volume-price analysis, the inferred intentions of large investors are as follows:

  1. 1. Accumulation: In the mid-to-late December 2025 period, within the 1.80-1.95 price range, accompanied by volume contraction to near-decade lows (historical rank 17), smart money completed preliminary accumulation. Market "silence" and low volatility are typical environments for accumulation.
  2. 2. Markup & Test: On January 2nd and 5th, 2026, smart money rapidly marked up the price with heavy buy-side volume (demand), moving it away from the cost zone. This is a strong "markup" behavior aimed at confirming market control and attracting followers.
  3. 3. Current Intent—Shakeout or Re-accumulation: The pullback from January 6th to 9th has seen volume gradually contract. Smart money is likely engaged in either:
    • • Shakeout: Shaking out weak longs that entered during the January 2nd-5th rally, while testing for supply during the pullback.
    • • Re-accumulation: Continuing to gather筹码 at a higher price platform (2.00-2.10) in preparation for the next leg up.
      Core Judgment: Because the pullback is characterized by contracting volume (especially on Jan 9th), it suggests large capital is not distributing heavily at these levels; supply is limited. The scenario of "Re-accumulation within an uptrend" is more probable.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Integrated Trading Signals

  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • Primary Support: 2.088 - 2.090. The midpoint and open price of the massive bullish candle on January 5th, also the breakout platform for this rally. A high-volume break below this level would破坏 the rally structure.
    • • Secondary Support: 2.065 - 2.070. The low point on January 8th and the vicinity of the 60-day MA, serving as important dynamic support.
    • • Absolute Support: 1.950 - 1.980. The upper boundary of the previous accumulation range. A break below this would invalidate the overall bullish hypothesis.
  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • Immediate Resistance: 2.347 - 2.370. The high on January 5th and the previous swing high.
    • • Next Resistance: 2.417. The high on January 6th.
  • • Integrated Wyckoff Events and Trading Signals:
    • • Market Phase: Currently in a "Re-accumulation" or "Initial Uptrend Establishment" phase following a prolonged decline.
    • • Core Signals: A "Demand-dominated rally (SOS)" and "Accumulation after Panic Selling (SC)" have already appeared. A "Secondary Test (ST)" of the SOS is currently underway.
    • • Trading Bias: Cautiously bullish, awaiting signals of pullback completion.
  • • Specific Trading Suggestions:
    1. 1. Potential Entry Points (Long Entry):
      • • Aggressive: In the current price zone (2.08-2.10), the appearance of a small-bodied, low-volume candlestick indicating a pause in the decline (e.g., doji, small bullish candle), followed by a volume-backed advance, could serve as an initial entry signal.
      • • Conservative: Wait for a pullback to the 2.065 - 2.075 support zone and observe clear signs of demand absorption (e.g., long lower wick, increased volume without further decline) before entering.
    2. 2. Stop Loss Level: Should be placed below key support. Recommended below 1.950.
    3. 3. Target and Add-on Levels:
      • • Initial Target: Previous high 2.347 - 2.370.
      • • Add-on Signal: A high-volume breakout above the 2.370 resistance can be considered a continuation of the uptrend and an opportunity to add to the position.
    4. 4. Conditions for Caution or Exit:
      • • If the price breaks below the 2.065 support on high volume, it indicates supply has regained dominance; exit and observe.
      • • If the price rebounds to the resistance near 2.347 and shows signs of high-volume stalling or a long upper wick, consider reducing the position.
  • • Future Validation Points:
    1. 1. Bullish Validation: After the price finds support above the support level, a "Demand Revival" signal is needed—a significantly higher-volume bullish candle closing above the previous day's high.
    2. 2. Bearish Validation: A "Supply Expansion" signal—an anemic bounce followed by a high-volume break below key support.
    3. 3. Trend Continuation Validation: Whether the price, after a low-volume pullback, can confirm support validity through a "Successful Test of Supply" (i.e., low pullback volume) and resume its advance on increased volume.

Conclusion: After undergoing a prolonged period of distribution and decline, XRPUSDT completed a significant accumulation process in late December 2025. The massive rally in early January 2026 was a clear demand offensive initiated by smart money. The market is currently in a healthy post-rally pullback phase, with the low-volume characteristic of the pullback suggesting limited supply. The trading strategy should primarily focus on identifying long opportunities on dips, placing strict stops below key support levels, and closely monitoring volume-price dynamics for further validation of the uptrend.

Disclaimer: This report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness in the content but makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks; investments require caution. Any investment actions based on this report are taken at one's own risk.

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