20260109 POOL Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

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Quantitative Analysis Report of POOL Using the Wyckoff Method

Product Code: POOL
Analysis Date Range: 2025-11-10 to 2026-01-09
Report Generation Date: 2026-01-10

I. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of January 9, 2026, the subject POOL opened at 245.00, closed at 252.28, with moving averages at MA_5D: 237.03, MA_10D: 233.80, MA_20D: 235.08. The daily change was +3.90%, weekly change +9.83%, monthly change +10.29%, quarterly change +10.29%, and yearly change +10.29%.

Based on the relationship between price and moving averages as well as price action, POOL experienced a complete evolution from a "Decline" to a "Potential Accumulation/Early Trend Transition" during the analysis period.

1. 1. Trend Status:
   • • Primary Trend (Most of the Analysis Period): A clear bearish alignment (downward sloping). From November 10, 2025, the price (CLOSE) remained consistently below all short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D, MA_20D, MA_30D, MA_60D). This indicated the market was in a strong downtrend.
   • • Recent Reversal Signal (Early January 2026): After consolidating at a low level (~228-232 range) in late December, the price formed two consecutive strong bullish candles on January 5th (+3.90%) and January 9th (+3.90%), decisively breaking above the MA_5D and MA_10D. As of January 9th, the MA_5D has turned upward, showing initial signs of a Golden Cross with the MA_10D. However, the price remains below the MA_20D and longer-term MAs, indicating the overall trend structure is not yet fully reversed.
2. 2. Market Phase Deduction (Based on Wyckoff Theory):
   • • Phase One - Panic Selling (PSYC): Occurred in mid-to-late November 2025. The price plummeted rapidly from around 252 to near 232 (November 20th), accompanied by significantly increased volume (e.g., VOLUME reached 1.21 million on November 13th, and nearly 1 million consecutively on November 19th-20th). RSI_14 dropped to the extreme oversold region of 21-22, characteristic of panic selling.
   • • Phase Two - Automatic Rally (AR): A significant volume-backed rally (+4.24%) occurred on November 21st, representing a natural, short-covering driven rebound following the panic selling.
   • • Phase Three - Secondary Test (ST): From November 24th to December 29th, the price oscillated widely within the 231-245 range, repeatedly pulling back to test the previous low (around 232). Key Signal: The volume during these tests (except for December 19th) was significantly lower compared to the panic period (e.g., December 22nd-26th, 30th-31st). This indicates supply (selling pressure) was drying up at the lows, and downward momentum was weakening.
   • • Phase Four - Accumulation & Sign of Strength (SOS): After January 2, 2026, the price began to rise with increasing volume and expanding range (Sign of Strength, SOS). In particular, the gains on January 5th, 8th, and 9th were all accompanied by above-average volume, showing demand (buying) is beginning to enter actively. This may signal the market is transitioning from the "accumulation" phase into the early stages of an "advance".

II. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of January 9, 2026, the subject POOL opened at 245.00, closed at 252.28, volume 1,049,689, daily change +3.90%, 7-day average volume 751,490.29, 7-day volume ratio 1.40.

The data clearly reveals the transition process of supply and demand forces, which is the core of Wyckoff analysis.

1. 1. Supply-Dominated (Strong Selling Pressure) Phase:
   • • 2025-11-13: Price fell -1.84%, but volume surged 82% to 1.21 million shares (historical rank #19), with a VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO as high as 1.65. This is a classic Spike in Volume on the Downside, indicating overwhelming supply dominance and the presence of large-scale selling.
   • • 2025-11-19 to 2025-11-20: Two consecutive days of price decline accompanied by high volume (990k, 940k), with VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO above 1.1 both days, confirming sustained supply.
2. 2. Supply Exhaustion and Demand Entry Phase:
   • • 2025-11-24: Price declined slightly (-1.36%), but volume exploded by 322.8% to 3.866 million shares (historical rank #4). Related volume ratio indicators all reached historical top 11 highs. This appears to be "high-volume decline," but given its occurrence at the bottom of the consolidation range after the panic decline, and the subsequent price increase the next day (Nov 25th), this could have been a Shakeout or massive turnover by large investors under extreme sentiment.
   • • 2025-12-19: Price fell -1.84% on high volume (VOLUME 1.10 million), but volume sharply contracted over the next four sessions (Dec 22nd-26th, 400k-670k shares) while price stabilized at the lows. This is "decline exhaustion with contracting volume" at the end of a downtrend, indicating supply has dried up.
   • • Demand Entry Signals:
     • • 2026-01-05: Price rose 2.85% on volume of 1.045 million shares, with a VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO of 1.79. This was the first significant signal of demand emergence.
     • • 2026-01-08 & 01-09: Classic demand pattern of rising price with rising volume. Price rose 2.44% and 3.90% respectively, with volume simultaneously expanding to 941k and 1.050 million shares. VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO was 1.30 and 1.40 respectively. Notably, on January 9th, volume reached the highest level since the start of the analysis period, and its AVERAGE_VOLUME_60D (803,219) hit a near 10-year high. This indicates exceptionally high recent participation and strong, sustained demand.

III. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of January 9, 2026, the subject POOL opened at 245.00, 7-day Parkinson volatility 0.35, 7-day Parkinson volatility ratio 1.27, 7-day historical volatility 0.36, 7-day historical volatility ratio 1.13, RSI 65.25.

Volatility indicators and RSI together depict the shift in market sentiment from "extreme fear" to "initial optimism."

1. 1. Volatility Analysis:
   • • Panic and Bottoming Period: During the panic decline in November and the consolidation/bottoming period in December, the 7-day and 14-day historical volatility (HIS_VOLA) and Parkinson volatility (PARKINSON_VOL) remained at moderate-to-high levels (0.30-0.45). The PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D once reached as high as 1.36 (Nov 21st), indicating short-term volatility far exceeded the long-term average, reflecting unstable market sentiment.
   • • Rally Initiation Period: As the January rally commenced, volatility did not contract but instead increased. PARKINSON_VOL_7D rose from 0.19 at the end of December to 0.35 on January 9th, and PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D rebounded to 1.13. This indicates the current advance is accompanied by expansion of volatility, aligning with characteristics of an early or accelerating trend phase, not a quiet consolidation.
2. 2. Market Sentiment (RSI):
   • • Extreme Oversold: On November 17th and 20th, RSI_14 reached extremely low levels of 22.20 and 21.35 respectively (historical rank #14 and #10 lows), confirming sentiment had hit rock bottom, creating conditions for a technical rebound.
   • • Sentiment Recovery: With consecutive gains in early January, RSI_14 climbed rapidly from 35.70 to 65.25 on January 9th, moving out of the oversold zone and approaching the overbought threshold (70). This shows market sentiment has shifted swiftly from pessimism to optimism, with strong short-term momentum.

IV. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

Momentum indicators reveal a divergence scenario of long-term weakness but a sharp recent strengthening in short-term momentum.

1. 1. Long-Term Momentum (Weak): All long-term return metrics show deep negative values (YTD: -27.01% to -32.91%, TTM_36: -20.62% to -28.79%), indicating POOL has been in significant relative weakness over the past 1-3 years.
2. 2. Short-Term Momentum (Strong Reversal): The key change occurred in early January. The WTD_RETURN (week-to-date as of Jan 9th) was as high as +9.83%, and MTD_RETURN (month-to-date for January) reached +10.29%. This sharp reversal in short-term momentum is highly consistent with the conclusion of "demand entry" from the volume-price analysis, serving as important corroborating evidence for a potential trend change.

V. Identification of Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior

Synthesizing the above dimensions, the operational path of large investors can be inferred:

1. 1. Absorption During Panic (Mid-Late November): The massive volume declines on November 13th and 24th, despite new price lows, necessarily involved equivalent buyers. In an environment of extreme oversold conditions (very low RSI) and panic, this was likely "smart money" conducting passive absorption or active accumulation at the panic selling climax. The historically top 5 volume events all occurred in this phase, which is certainly not retail behavior.
2. 2. Quiet Accumulation and Testing (December): Volume was subdued for most of December, with price oscillating narrowly at low levels. This is a classic accumulation platform. Large investors were quietly gathering shares and testing market supply through minor fluctuations (e.g., the high-volume decline test of support on Dec 19th followed by immediate volume contraction).
3. 3. Active Markup and Breakout (Early January): The rally since January 5th, especially the sustained volume-backed breakout above the key resistance level (240) on the 8th and 9th, is a clear signal that smart money is concluding accumulation and beginning to mark up the price. They are no longer hiding their intent but are demonstrating demand through continuous buying, driving the price away from their cost base. The record level of the 60-day average volume on January 9th further confirms a historic increase in large capital activity recently.

VI. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

1. 1. Key Levels:
   • • Strong Support: 231.00 - 232.00. This zone held during multiple downside tests in December 2025 (Dec 19, 22, 23, 29) and was the starting point of the rebound on January 2nd. It can serve as a crucial stop-loss reference.
   • • Recently Broken Resistance (Now Turned Support): 240.00 - 242.00. This was the upper bound of the December consolidation range and the level broken with volume on January 8th. After the breakout, it should act as a new support zone.
   • • Next Resistance: 253.00 - 255.00. This area is formed near the initial decline in mid-November and the recent high on January 9th.
2. 2. Integrated Trading Signal and Operational Suggestions:
   • • Integrated Judgment: Based on the Wyckoff event sequence (Panic Selling → Automatic Rally → Secondary Test (low volume) → Sign of Strength (high volume)), combined with volume-price, momentum, volatility, and smart money behavior analysis, the market is currently emitting a "Bullish" signal. The market has likely concluded its downtrend and entered the initial phase of a new uptrend.
   • • Operational Suggestions:
     • • Bias: Bullish.
     • • Strategy: Look for pullback opportunities to go long.
     • • Ideal Entry Zone: On a price pullback to the 240-242 (post-breakout support) or 235-238 (38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance) range, accompanied by signs of decline exhaustion on low volume.
     • • Stop-Loss Level: Should be placed below the key support at 231.00 to manage the low-probability risk of a failed trend transition.
     • • Initial Target Zone: 253.00 - 255.00 area.
   • • Future Validation Points:
     1. 1. Signs That Would Invalidate the Bullish View: Price falls back below 240 on high volume, especially breaking below 235, and fails to recover quickly.
     2. 2. Signs That Would Strengthen the Bullish View: Price, after holding around the current level (~252) or following a minor pullback, continues to break above the 253-255 resistance zone with average or above-average volume.
     3. 3. Warning Signal: If price approaches the target zone and shows abnormally high volume with price stagnation (single long upper wick or consecutive small-bodied candles), be alert to distribution risk and consider reducing or closing positions.

Disclaimer: This report is based entirely on quantitative analysis and theoretical derivation of the provided historical data and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets involve risks. Please make independent judgments and decisions cautiously based on your own circumstances.

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