Alright, adhering to your instructions. As a quantitative trading researcher proficient in the Wyckoff Method, I will compose a comprehensive and in-depth quantitative analysis report based on the POLUSDT data and historical ranking metrics you provided. The report will strictly follow the six dimensions you requested, with all conclusions derived from data and Wyckoff's price-volume principles.

POLUSDT Quantitative Analysis Report (Based on the Wyckoff Method)

Product Code: POLUSDT
Analysis Date Range: 2025-11-10 to 2026-01-09
Report Generation Date: 2026-01-10

Executive Summary

Based on the analysis of nearly two months of data, after a sustained downtrend lasting nearly two months with a 45% decline (from the 2025-11-10 high of 0.1852 to the 2025-12-31 low of 0.1005), POLUSDT experienced a strong, volume-driven reversal in early January 2026. Wyckoff analysis indicates that the price action in mid-to-late December 2025 clearly exhibited characteristics of a "Selling Climax" (Panic Selling), while the significant volume surge and price rise in early January 2026 are identified as a "Strong Rally", signaling a potential transition from the "Accumulation" phase to the "Markup" phase. However, after reaching a recent high on 2026-01-09, the RSI has entered overbought territory, and the trading volume reached historic highs, suggesting that short-term profit-taking pressure needs to be monitored. In conclusion, the trend has shifted from downtrend to short-term strength, but the mid-term structure still requires confirmation.

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-01-09: Opening Price: 0.14, Closing Price: 0.15, MA_5D: 0.13, MA_10D: 0.12, MA_20D: 0.11, Daily Change: +11.26%, Weekly Return: +33.33%, Monthly Return: +50.45%, Quarterly Return: -49.55%, Annual Return: -66.32%.

POLUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
POLUSDT Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Moving Average Alignment and Price Relationship: From November to December 2025, the price consistently traded below all key moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D, MA_20D, MA_30D, MA_60D), with the averages in a standard bearish alignment (MA_5D < MA_10D < MA_20D ...), confirming a clear downtrend. Entering January 2026, the price experienced consecutive strong rallies and successfully broke above the MA_5D (0.1278), MA_10D (0.1178), and MA_20D (0.1121) by 2026-01-09, and is currently testing the MA_30D (0.1130), indicating a shift from a short-term bearish to bullish trend.
  • • Moving Average Crossover Signals: MA_5D crossed above MA_20D on 2026-01-06, forming a "Golden Cross". This crossover occurred against the backdrop of a strong rebound from historical lows and a surge in volume, giving it relatively high technical reliability as a key signal for establishing the short-term uptrend.
  • • Inferred Market Phase:
    • • November 2025 to Mid-December 2025: Distribution and Markdown Phase. The price declined orderly from the 0.18 zone, accompanied by several high-volume down days (e.g., Nov-14, Nov-21), consistent with the characteristics of Wyckoff's "Distribution" followed by "Markdown".
    • • Mid-to-Late December 2025: Signs of Selling Climax and Accumulation. On December 18th, as the price hit a new low (0.1019), it was accompanied by extreme volume (VOLUME 127 million, VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO reaching 2.27), yet closed off its lowest point (0.1035). This aligns with the Wyckoff definition of a "Selling Climax" (SC) – supply being absorbed in large quantities. The subsequent "Automatic Rally" (AR) and "Secondary Test" (ST) occurred on significantly lower volume (e.g., Dec 24th, 29th), suggesting supply exhaustion.
    • • Early January 2026 to Present: Strong Rally (Early Markup Phase). The price broke above previous consolidation lows on high volume, confirming the effectiveness of the accumulation and indicating the market has entered the Markup phase.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-01-09: Opening Price: 0.14, Closing Price: 0.15, Volume: 238,610,902.50, Daily Change: +11.26%, Volume: 238,610,902.50, 7-Day Average Volume: 72,568,305.80, 7-Day Volume Ratio: 3.29.

POLUSDT Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
POLUSDT Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Key Day Analysis:
    • • 2025-12-18 (Selling Climax Day): Price declined -3.45%, volume surged 68.5% to 127 million. The VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO reached 2.27 (Historical Rank #20). This is a classic supply-dominated decline, but the massive volume indicates substantial opposing demand at this price level, potentially representing large investor absorption.
    • • 2026-01-09 (Demand Explosion Day): Price increased +11.26%, volume surged 104.8% to 238 million (Historical Rank #6). The VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO reached an extremely high 4.12 (Historical Rank #4). This is a strong demand-dominated signal, indicating aggressive buyer entry driving the price breakout.
    • • 2025-12-24/29 (Supply Exhaustion Test Days): Price showed minor fluctuations, with volumes shrinking to 30.22 million and 40.33 million respectively (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO only 0.49 and 0.68). This indicates selling pressure was exhausted at key low levels; while demand was not aggressively attacking, supply lacked the power to push prices lower.
  • • Supply-Demand Dynamic Conclusion: The data clearly presents a complete Wyckoff supply-demand transition sequence: Supply-dominated decline (December) -> Massive demand absorption during panic (Dec-18) -> Supply exhaustion with contracting volume (Late December) -> Demand explosion with volume breakout (Early January). The current market is dominated by strong demand.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of 2026-01-09: Opening Price: 0.14, 7-Day Intraday Volatility: 0.93, 7-Day Volatility Volume Ratio: 1.24, 7-Day Historical Volatility: 0.67, 7-Day/60-Day Historical Volatility Ratio: 0.90, RSI: 77.74.

POLUSDT Historical Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
POLUSDT Historical Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Levels and Structure: At the end of the December decline, short-term volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D) dropped to extremely low levels (0.2879, Historical Rank #11), indicating subdued market sentiment and fading directional momentum. Following the January rally, short-term volatility rapidly increased to 0.6677. The key point is that the HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D is 0.90, indicating that while current volatility has risen, it has not deviated from the long-term volatility framework, suggesting a relatively healthy uptrend structure.
  • • Sentiment Indicators: The RSI_14 rebounded strongly from an oversold low of 24.61 (Historical Rank #3) on December 1st, reaching 77.74 (Historical Rank #3) by 2026-01-09, entering overbought territory. This shows market sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to extreme optimism in the short term, building up pressure for a technical correction.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Extremely Strong Short-Term Momentum: WTD_RETURN (as of 01-09) reached +33.33%, MTD_RETURN (January to date) is +50.45%. Short-term momentum is exceptionally strong, consistent with the volume-breakout price-volume signal.
  • • Mid-Term Momentum Still Negative but Improving: QTD_RETURN (Q4 to date) is -49.55%, YTD (last 12 months) is -66.32%. While the long-term trend remains downward, the recent sharp positive momentum has begun to repair the mid-term structure. The momentum performance validates the "short-term bullish, mid-term needs confirmation" judgment from the trend analysis.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Based on volume-price and phase analysis, large investor intentions can be inferred:

  • • "Selling Climax" in Mid-to-Late December 2025 (Dec-18): Panic selling from retail and weak hands was absorbed by strong buyers. Massive volume occurring at new price lows aligns with Wyckoff theory's concept of "professional capital accumulating during panic." The historically high volume ratio ranking (#20) indicates this event was extraordinary.
  • • Low-Volume Consolidation in Late December 2025: Prices stopped making new lows, and volume contracted. This shows large investors had gained control over the supply side, entering a "shaking out" or "testing" phase, using low volume to test for remaining selling pressure and preparing for the subsequent markup.
  • • "Strong Rally" in Early January 2026 (Especially 01-09): Record-breaking volume (Historical #6) and volume ratio (Historical #4) indicate this is not retail-driven bandwagon buying, but organized and determined buying action by large capital. The intent is to quickly move away from the accumulation cost zone, confirm the trend reversal, and attract market attention. The "smart money" behavior on this day is a classic display of demand.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

POLUSDT Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart with Trading Signals
POLUSDT Support and Resistance Level Analysis Chart with Trading Signals
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • Primary Support (S1): 0.1005 - The absolute low of this downtrend and the location of the "Selling Climax", holding significant psychological and technical importance.
    • • Secondary Support (S2): 0.1130-0.1150 - Corresponds to the MA_30D and the upper boundary of the consolidation platform prior to the early January breakout, also the area of a recent gap. Strong buying interest is expected here.
  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • Immediate Resistance (R1): 0.1510-0.1520 - The high zone formed on 2026-01-09, where price retreated after an advance, suggesting short-term profit-taking pressure.
    • • Intermediate Resistance (R2): 0.1600-0.1650 - A previous bounce high zone during the November 2025 decline.
    • • Primary Resistance (R3): 0.1850 - The initial platform from which the decline started in early November 2025.
  • • Comprehensive Trading Signals and Recommendations:
    • • Overall View: Bullish, but await low-risk entry opportunities following a short-term correction. The market has completed major accumulation and initiated markup, but short-term overbought conditions and high volume suggest digestion is needed.
    • • Operational Recommendations:
      1. 1. Aggressive Approach: If the price retraces to the S2 zone (0.1130-0.1150) and shows signs of stabilization on low volume (e.g., small-bodied candles, volume below average), consider a light long position with a stop-loss set below S1 (0.1005).
      2. 2. Conservative Approach: Adopt a wait-and-see stance, allowing for a pullback to confirm the recent breakout. Monitor whether price finds support in the S2 zone followed by renewed volume-driven buying. An ideal entry signal is a "volume-backed bullish candle following a successful test of support".
      3. 3. Exit/Take-Profit Reference: Initial target can be set towards R2 (0.1600-0.1650). If price approaches R3 (0.1850) and shows signs of stalling or volume-backed stalling, consider significantly reducing position size or exiting.
  • • Future Validation Points (Watchlist):
    1. 1. Bullish Validation: Price correction must hold above the S2 (0.1130) support, and subsequent advances should be accompanied by moderate volume expansion. A successful break above R1 (0.1520) would open up further upside.
    2. 2. Bearish Validation/Risk Warning: If price breaks below S2 support on high volume, the recent rally might merely be a "Bear Market Rally" (UTAD), and the downtrend would likely resume. If price consolidates or dips slightly on low volume at current levels over the next few days with RSI retreating from highs, it would be a healthy correction. Continued parabolic rises on low volume would indicate an unsustainable advance.

Disclaimer: This report is based on historical data and quantitative model analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets involve risks; invest with caution.

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