Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report: Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)

Symbol: NDX
Analysis Period: November 10, 2025 to January 9, 2026
Report Generation Date: January 10, 2026
Core Philosophy: All analysis is data-driven and adheres to the Wyckoff framework of "Price, Volume, and Time," aiming to identify changes in market supply-demand balance and the intentions of large investors (smart money).

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset NDX had an opening price of 25518.82, a closing price of 25766.26, a 5-day moving average (MA) of 25481.64, a 10-day MA of 25494.67, a 20-day MA of 25393.47, a daily change of 1.02%, a weekly change of 2.22%, a monthly change of 2.05%, a quarterly change of 2.05%, and a yearly change of 2.05%.

NDX Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
NDX Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages

Data Derivation and Observations:

  • • MA Alignment and Price Relationship: Towards the end of the analysis period (2026-01-09), the price (25766.26) had decisively moved above all major moving averages (MA_5D: 25481.64, MA_10D: 25494.67, MA_20D: 25393.47, MA_30D: 25421.18, MA_60D: 25292.97). The MA_5D had crossed above the MA_10D, MA_20D, and MA_60D, and the MA_10D was also above the MA_20D and MA_60D, indicating an initial formation of a bullish short-term MA alignment. However, the MA_20D and MA_30D were still entangled and remained above the MA_60D, suggesting that while the medium-to-long-term uptrend structure was not completely broken, it had experienced a significant period of short-term consolidation.
  • • Price Action and Phase Inference:
    1. 1. Mid-to-late November 2025 (Panic/Accumulation Phase): The price fell rapidly from a high of 25611 on November 10 to a low of 24021.44 on November 20, a decline of 6.2%. This process was accompanied by high volume (e.g., the VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO reached 1.26 on Nov 20), aligning with the characteristics of "Panic Selling" or a "Selling Climax" in Wyckoff theory.
    2. 2. Late November to Early December 2025 (Rally/Test Phase): The price rebounded swiftly from the November 20 low, closing at 25434.89 on November 28. The rally was accompanied by active volume (VOLUME reached 1.73B on Nov 24), indicating demand entering the market. Subsequently, the price consolidated within the 25500-25800 range in early December, which can be viewed as a "Secondary Test" of the panic low support and a correction of the prior decline.
    3. 3. Mid-December 2025 to Present (Advance/Potential Distribution Phase): Following an extreme volume day on December 19 (2.86B, historical rank #2), the price failed to continue rising and experienced a minor pullback towards year-end. Entering January 2026, the price resumed its upward movement, reaching a new closing high of 25766.26 for the period on January 9. However, the volume during this new high (1.17B) was significantly lower than the extreme volume on December 19, showing initial signs of a "price advance on diverging volume."

Conclusion:
The market completed a full cycle of "panic decline -> strong rally -> high-level consolidation -> renewed advance" within the analysis period. Currently, it is in the late stage of a short-term advance wave within the broader medium-to-long-term uptrend structure. The health of the new high established on January 9 needs to be judged in conjunction with its volume-price relationship.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset NDX had an opening price of 25518.82, a closing price of 25766.26, volume of 1166151635, daily change of 1.02%, 7-day average volume of 1060921655.29, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.10.

NDX Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
NDX Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis

Data Derivation and Observations:

  • • Demand-Dominant Days (Demand Day):
    • • 2025-11-24: The price surged 2.62% (PCT_CHANGE) on volume of 1.73B (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO: 1.29). This is a classic "advance on high volume," indicating strong demand that successfully halted the downtrend.
    • • 2026-01-09 (Latest Trading Day): The price rose 1.02%, closing at a new high. Volume was 1.17B (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO: 1.10), above the recent average but not exceptionally high. This can be interpreted as demand-driven advancement, but the intensity is moderate compared to historical levels.
  • • Supply-Dominant Days (Supply Day):
    • • 2025-11-20: The price plummeted 2.38% on volume of 1.64B (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO: 1.26). This is a clear case of "decline on high volume," with supply completely dominating the market and triggering panic.
    • • 2025-12-19: A Critical Anomaly Day. The price rose only 1.31%, but volume surged to 2.86B, marking the 2nd highest absolute volume in nearly a decade, and its day-over-day volume growth of 115.34% also ranked 1st in nearly a decade. This is a textbook potential distribution signal of "ultra-high volume with a small price spread." The VOLUME_AVG_7D/14D/21D/30D ratios for that day were all in the top 20 historically, indicating exceptionally active trading.
  • • Lack of Demand Days:
    • • 2025-12-26, 12-30, 12-31, etc.: During the holiday period, volume shrank to 0.60B-0.69B (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO as low as 0.46-0.66, with extremely low historical rankings), with minor price fluctuations. This is due to seasonal liquidity drainage and not a typical supply-demand signal.

Conclusion:
Supply and demand forces shifted dramatically within the period. The high-volume plunge on November 20 represented a selling climax, which was effectively absorbed by the high-volume advance (demand) on November 24. The most cautionary signal is the extreme volume stagnation on December 19, strongly suggesting significant supply emerging near historical highs. Although the price made a new high on January 9, the volume failed to surpass or match the level seen on December 19, creating a potential volume-price divergence and casting doubt on the sustainability of the advance.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset NDX had an opening price of 25518.82, 7-day intraday Parkinson volatility of 0.12, 7-day Parkinson volatility ratio of 1.30, 7-day historical volatility of 0.14, 7-day historical volatility ratio of 1.16, and an RSI of 58.05.

NDX Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
NDX Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data

Data Derivation and Observations:

  • • Volatility Levels and Changes: During the panic selling phase in November, short-term volatility (HIS_VOLA_7D, PARKINSON_VOL_7D) increased significantly. For example, on November 21, PARKINSON_VOL_7D reached 0.295, and HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D was 1.52, indicating tense market sentiment. Starting in December, volatility systematically contracted. By mid-to-late December, short-term volatility dropped to extremely low levels (e.g., on Dec 5, PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_14D was 0.53, ranking 2nd lowest historically; on Dec 30, PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_30D was 0.44, ranking 1st lowest historically). Volatility contraction often signals weakening trend momentum and potential for a turning point.
  • • Market Sentiment (RSI): The RSI_14 dropped to the oversold zone at 35.18 on November 20, confirming panic sentiment. It subsequently rebounded. During the advance from December to January, the RSI mostly operated within the neutral-to-strong range of 50-60, reaching 58.05 on January 9, without entering the overbought zone (>70). This suggests that, from a momentum indicator perspective, market sentiment is not excessively optimistic, and the advance has some "rational" foundation.

Conclusion:
Market sentiment rapidly recovered from panic in November (high volatility, oversold RSI) to cautious optimism since December (low volatility, neutral RSI). The current extremely low short-term volatility (relative to medium-term) is a warning signal, indicating the market is in a "calm before the storm," with the risk of significant price fluctuations accumulating. The RSI not being overbought leaves room for further advance but may also imply the upward momentum is not driven by strong retail chasing.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

Data Derivation and Observations:

  • • Periodic Returns: As of 2026-01-09, NDX exhibited strong short-term momentum: the weekly return (WTD_RETURN) was 2.22%, and the month-to-date return (MTD_RETURN) was 2.05%. This supports the judgment of being in a short-term advance wave. Quarterly (QTD) and year-to-date (YTD) returns were also positive, indicating the medium-to-long-term momentum has not reversed.
  • • Cross-Validation of Momentum, Trend, and Volume-Price: The strong short-term momentum (positive WTD, MTD) is consistent with the trend judgment of price making new highs and staying above moving averages. However, this momentum lacks corresponding volume expansion (compared to December 19) for support, making its foundation appear less solid. The momentum indicator (RSI) not being overbought also aligns with the lack of explosive volume.

Conclusion:
NDX demonstrates strong short-term relative strength and momentum. However, this momentum is more reflected in price action and has not been fully validated in the volume dimension, creating a slight divergence between "momentum and volume energy," warranting caution against potential momentum exhaustion.

5. Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior Identification

Data Inference Based on Wyckoff Events:

  1. 1. Accumulation: November 20-21, 2025 is the key window. The high-volume plunge on the 20th (selling climax) was followed by an even higher volume day (1.71B) on the 21st with a positive close (PCT_CHANGE +0.77%), a classic pattern of "smart money buying after panic selling." Large investors likely engaged in strategic accumulation in this zone.
  2. 2. Distribution: December 19, 2025 is the strongest suspected distribution signal. Record-breaking volume (historical #2) accompanied by a minimal price gain, occurring at a rally high. This closely fits the "Climax Action" within the Wyckoff distribution model, where smart money likely distributed shares to the chasing public.
  3. 3. Current Behavior (Early January 2026): The price is making new highs on relatively thin volume (compared to December 19). This can be interpreted in two ways: ① A "secondary distribution" or "upthrust" following distribution, where smart money uses a final push to complete liquidation; ② A new demand wave driving the advance. Given the extreme supply signal on December 19, the probability of scenario ① is significantly higher. Smart money is likely utilizing an environment of low volatility and stable sentiment for orderly, high-level share redistribution.

Conclusion:
The behavior path of large investors is clear: Accumulation during panic in late November -> Rally to highs in December -> Large-scale distribution using extreme volume on December 19 -> Potential final markup distribution or market liquidity test in early January. The dominant market force is quietly shifting from demand to supply.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Comprehensive Trading Signals

Key Price Level Identification:

  • • Near-term Resistance: ~25835 (December 10, 2025 high, the period's peak). The price reached a high of 25811 on January 9, 2026, very close to this resistance.
  • • Primary Support Levels:
    • • First Support: ~25000 (multiple consolidation lows in December 2025, also near the 30-day MA).
    • • Second Support/Critical Support: ~24050 (November 20, 2025 panic low area, also the smart money accumulation zone). A breach below this level would completely reverse the medium-term trend.
  • • Historical Volume Concentration Zone: The 25500-25700 range has seen repeated trading activity recently, acting as both support and resistance.

Comprehensive Trading Signals and Operational Recommendations Based on Wyckoff:

  1. 1. Overall Assessment: Cautiously Bearish/Neutral. Multiple pieces of evidence suggest the market may be in the "distribution" phase at the end of an advance: ① A historical-level signal of high-volume stagnation; ② Volume-price divergence on new highs; ③ Short-term volatility compressed to extreme levels; ④ Smart money behavior aligns with the distribution logic.
  2. 2. Operational Recommendations:
    • • Aggressive Approach (Bearish Bias): The current price (~25766) is near the strong resistance at 25835, with bearish signals present. Consider establishing a tentative short position within the 25800-25850 range. Initial stop-loss should be set above 26000 (a decisive break above the historical high). Target the first support at 25000, and potentially the second support at 24050.
    • • Conservative Approach: Strongly recommend staying on the sidelines, avoiding chasing the high. Wait for the market to make a clear choice regarding the current conflicting signals. If the price breaks above and holds above 25835 with strong accompanying volume (close to or exceeding the December 19 level), the distribution hypothesis would be invalidated, necessitating a shift to a bullish view. If the price fails at or slightly above the current level and produces a high-volume down day, it would be a signal confirming distribution completion and a trend reversal to bearish, prompting consideration for adding to short positions.
  3. 3. Future Validation Points:
    • • Bullish Validation Point: The price needs to sustainably break above and hold above 25850 with significant volume (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO >1.5), and any pullback should not breach 25500. This would invalidate the distribution hypothesis, indicating a new demand-driven uptrend.
    • • Bearish Validation Point: The price encounters resistance near 25800, followed by a close below 25500 (below the cluster of short-term MAs and the lower bound of the volume concentration zone), accompanied by increasing volume. This would confirm a failed advance and the re-establishment of supply control, initiating a decline.

Risk Warning: Despite clear distribution signs, the market may maintain high-level consolidation by inertia before clear bearish signals emerge. All operations should strictly implement stop-losses.

Disclaimer: This report/analysis is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and impartiality but makes no guarantees regarding accuracy or completeness. The market involves risks; investing requires caution. Any investment actions taken based on this report are at your own risk.

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