Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report: Product Code 513980

Analysis Date Range: November 10, 2025 to January 9, 2026
Report Generation Date: January 10, 2026
Core Methodology: Wyckoff Price-Volume Analysis

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset 513980 had an opening price of 0.74, a closing price of 0.74, a 5-day moving average of 0.74, a 10-day moving average of 0.73, a 20-day moving average of 0.73, a daily change of 0.82%, a weekly change of 4.51%, a monthly change of 4.51%, a quarterly change of 4.51%, and an annual change of 4.51%.

513980 Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
513980 Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Moving Average Alignment and Price Relationship:
    As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of 0.742 is slightly above the 5-day MA (0.737) but below the 10-day (0.728), 20-day (0.726), 30-day (0.735), and 60-day MAs (0.764). This presents a pattern of "short-term stabilization amidst a medium-to-long-term bearish alignment." The price is attempting to recover from below the longer-term moving averages, but a bullish trend has not yet been established.
  • • Moving Average Crossover Signals:
    During the analysis period, the 5-day MA crossed below the 20-day MA (a bearish death cross) around November 20, confirming the start of a mid-term downtrend. Currently, the 5-day MA (0.737) has flattened and begun to turn upward but has not yet formed a golden cross above the 20-day MA (0.726). This is an initial signal of a potential trend inflection point, requiring subsequent price-volume confirmation.
  • • Market Phase Inference (Wyckoff Framework):
    1. 1. Distribution and Decline (Early to Late November 2025): The price declined from around 0.81 in a choppy manner, with successive lower highs and relatively high volume, consistent with the characteristics of a market transitioning from distribution into a markdown phase.
    2. 2. Panic Selling (November 21, 2025): A single-day decline of -2.26% occurred, accompanied by a massive volume of 19.49 billion (over 2 times the recent average). This is a typical panic selling day, marking a concentrated, one-time release of downward momentum.
    3. 3. Automatic Rally and Secondary Test (November 24 to Late December 2025): A rally followed the panic day, but it was weak and accompanied by contracting volume (e.g., volume on December 25 was only 2.15 billion, with a VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO of only 0.194, ranking as the 7th lowest in nearly a decade). The price oscillated narrowly within the 0.709-0.759 range, during which multiple low-volume tests of the previous lows occurred (e.g., December 15, 16), forming a clear accumulation range.
    4. 4. Beginning of an Uptrend (Early January 2026): On January 5, the price rose 4.51% on elevated volume (+49.36%), breaking above the upper boundary of the trading range. It subsequently closed above 0.74 for several consecutive days, initially breaking away from the accumulation zone. The market is transitioning from the "accumulation" phase to the initial stage of the "markup" phase.

2. Price-Volume Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset 513980 had an opening price of 0.74, a closing price of 0.74, volume of 743,401,800, a daily change of 0.82%, volume of 743,401,800, a 7-day average volume of 1,000,497,508.86, and a 7-day volume ratio of 0.74.

513980 Price-Volume Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
513980 Price-Volume Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Key Day Analysis:
    • • Supply-Dominated Day (Supply Expansion): 2025-11-21 (-2.26%, VOLUME 19.49B, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO 2.07) is a typical panic selling day, indicating extreme supply expansion.
    • • Demand-Dominated Day (Demand Expansion): 2026-01-05 (+4.51%, VOLUME 13.00B, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO 2.17) was a high-volume breakout day, showing strong demand returning and overcoming supply.
    • • Insufficient Demand Day (Low-Volume Rally): 2025-11-27 (-0.92%, VOLUME 8.74B, VOLUME_AVG_30D_RATIO 0.80). The price declined slightly on below-average volume, indicating limited selling pressure but also a lack of incoming demand.
    • • Supply Exhaustion Day (Low-Volume Decline/Stabilization): 2025-12-25 (+0.14%, VOLUME 2.15B, VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO 0.194). A very low-volume small positive candle appeared near the bottom of the accumulation range, signaling that supply was nearly exhausted.
  • • Supply-Demand Dynamic Shift:
    Volume analysis clearly reveals the shift in supply-demand forces. Following the panic day (Nov 21), the overall volume level declined significantly, reaching an extreme in late December (multiple volume ratio metrics hit multi-year lows). This indicates that selling pressure (supply) had substantially diminished. In January, volume expanded notably on price advances (e.g., Jan 5, 6), confirming that demand has begun to actively enter the market, marking a fundamental reversal in the supply-demand relationship.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset 513980 had an opening price of 0.74, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.20, a 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 1.16, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.40, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 1.36, and an RSI of 52.05.

513980 Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
513980 Parkinson Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Levels and Historical Rankings:
    Recent short-term volatility metrics (7-day, 14-day, 30-day Parkinson volatility) are all at historically extreme lows. Historical ranking data shows that the 14-day and 30-day Parkinson volatility recently hit their lowest values in nearly a decade (ranking 1st and 2nd). For example, as of January 9, PARKINSON_VOL_14D was 0.1699, ranking 2nd historically; PARKINSON_VOL_30D was 0.191, ranking 1st historically. This signifies that market volatility has been compressed to an extreme, typically preceding a significant trend change.
  • • Volatility Structure Change:
    Around the January 5th breakout, both HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D (1.36) and PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_14D (1.16) were greater than 1, indicating that short-term volatility has begun to exceed and expand relative to medium-term volatility. This is a typical volatility characteristic at the onset of a trend, resonating with the price advance.
  • • Overbought/Oversold Status (RSI):
    The RSI_14 touched 31.44 on the panic selling day (Nov 21), entering the technical oversold zone. It subsequently recovered during the accumulation range consolidation and rose to 56.86 on January 6th following the price increase. The current RSI is 52.05, in a neutral-to-strong zone, posing no overbought risk while showing upward momentum. Sentiment has shifted from pessimistic to neutral-optimistic.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Periodic Return Analysis:
    • • Short-Term Momentum (WTD): The weekly return (as of Jan 9) is +4.51%, indicating significantly strengthened short-term momentum.
    • • Mid-Term Momentum (MTD/QTD): The month-to-date (MTD) return for January is +4.51%, and the quarter-to-date (QTD) return is also +4.51%, reversing the previous months of declining trend. A mid-term momentum inflection point has appeared.
    • • Long-Term Momentum (YTD): Although positive year-to-date, longer-term YTD and TTM data indicate the product is still in a recovery process following a correction from higher levels. Conclusion: The simultaneous improvement in short and mid-term momentum is a positive bullish signal.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Based on Wyckoff theory and the above price-volume and volatility analysis, the behavioral path of large investors can be inferred:

  1. 1. Distribution and Following Decline (November 2025): After large investors completed distribution at higher price levels, the market lacked support, leading to a price decline driven by follow-on selling.
  2. 2. Buying During Panic (November 21, 2025): During the massive panic selling day, there must have been an equivalent volume of buyers. Smart money absorbed the筹码 (chips) dumped by panicked retail investors at this moment, completing the first stage of accumulation.
  3. 3. Suppression and Collection within the Accumulation Range (December 2025): Within the 0.71-0.76 trading range, low volume during price rallies indicated smart money was not in a hurry to push prices higher. Instead, they controlled the price while patiently accumulating more筹码 at lower levels. The extremely low volatility and volume confirm scarce floating supply, suggesting the accumulation process was nearing completion.
  4. 4. Breakout Confirmation and Markup (Early January 2026): The high-volume positive candle on January 5th is a clear signal that smart money concluded accumulation and began to propel prices higher. The favorable price-volume coordination in the following days indicates their determined intent to mark up prices.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

513980 Support/Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
513980 Support/Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • Primary Support: The 0.735 - 0.725 zone. This is the mid-to-lower part of the recent trading range and the consolidation platform before the early January breakout, also near the panic low (0.734). Strong demand support is expected here.
    • • Secondary Support: 0.709 - 0.710. The December 2025 low, marking the lower boundary of the accumulation range, serves as the ultimate support.
  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • Primary Resistance: The 0.753 - 0.755 zone. The January 6 high and the rebound high from early December 2025.
    • • Core Resistance: The 0.785 - 0.795 zone. The high-volume congestion area from mid-November 2025 and the area above the 60-day MA (0.764).
  • • Comprehensive Wyckoff Events and Trading Signals:
    • • Event Identification: The market has fully experienced the Wyckoff cycle of "Distribution -> Decline -> Panic Selling -> Automatic Rally -> Secondary Test (Accumulation) -> Breakout from Accumulation Range." It is currently in the initial phase following the "Jump across the Creek" or "Breakout from Trading Range."
    • • Trading Signal: Bullish. The market structure has shifted from weak to strong, with smart money having completed accumulation and initiating a markup.
    • • Operational Suggestions:
      • • Entry: Consider entering in phases on a pullback to the support zone (0.735-0.725) if accompanied by low-volume stabilization signals. Aggressive traders may enter partially after the price stabilizes above 0.742 (the recent platform).
      • • Stop Loss: Set below the key support at 0.709 to guard against a breakdown below the accumulation range, which would invalidate the structure.
      • • Target: Initial target towards the resistance at 0.755, with a mid-term target towards the 0.785-0.795 zone upon a successful breakout.
  • • Future Validation Points:
    1. 1. Bullish Validation: Subsequent pullbacks must occur on low volume and must not breach the 0.725 support. The uptrend should exhibit a healthy price-volume structure of "rising prices on increasing volume, falling prices on decreasing volume."
    2. 2. Risk Warning: If the price falls back below 0.725 on high volume, the breakout may be a "false breakout" or a "spring trap," requiring a reassessment of the market structure. Long positions should be exited in such a scenario.

Summary Conclusion:
Based on Wyckoff price-volume analysis, product 513980 has completed a full market cycle from distribution to accumulation. Historically extreme low volatility and volume confirm the sufficiency of the accumulation process. Currently, demand has established dominance through a high-volume advance, with the price breaking away from the accumulation range and the market entering the initial markup phase. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, with close attention paid to price-volume behavior for trend validation.

Disclaimer: This report/analysis is solely for market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and impartiality but makes no guarantee regarding the accuracy or completeness of the content. Markets involve risks; investing requires caution. Any investment actions taken based on this report are undertaken at your own risk.

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