20260109 513120 Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

Understood. As a quantitative trading researcher proficient in the Wyckoff method, I will compose a comprehensive and in-depth quantitative analysis report for Product Code: 513120 based on the data table and historical ranking metrics you have provided.

Quantitative Analysis Report: Product Code 513120

Analysis Date Range: 2025-11-10 to 2026-01-09
Report Generation Date: 2026-01-09

I. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of January 09, 2026, the underlying asset 513120 recorded an opening price of 1.32, a closing price of 1.35, a 5-day moving average (MA) of 1.28, a 10-day MA of 1.26, and a 20-day MA of 1.26. The daily change was +1.42%, weekly change +13.32%, monthly change +13.32%, quarterly change +13.32%, and annual change +13.32%.

1. 1. Moving Average Alignment:
   • • As of 2026-01-09, the price (1.353) has successfully risen above all short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages. The alignment is: CLOSE (1.353) > MA_5D (1.2786) > MA_10D (1.2569) > MA_20D (1.2616) > MA_30D (1.2859) > MA_60D (1.3227).
   • • This is a nascent but typical bullish alignment. Although MA_60D remains at the highest level (due to the inertia from the previous significant decline), the short-term moving averages (MA_5D, MA_10D) have clearly turned upwards and crossed above the medium-term moving average (MA_20D), signaling a strong trend reversal.
2. 2. Moving Average Cross Signals and Market Phase:
   • • Key Crosses: During the strong rebound from 2026-01-05 to 01-09, the MA_5D successively crossed above the MA_10D and MA_20D, forming bullish crosses. This marks the exhaustion of the bearish trend and the regrouping of bullish forces.
   • • Price Action and Phase Identification:
     • • Late November to Late December 2025: The price oscillated downwards from a high of 1.415, successively breaching all moving averages, and reached a cyclical low of 1.194 on 2025-12-30. This process was accompanied by diminishing volume (see below), aligning with the characteristics of the final stage of a downtrend in Wyckoff theory.
     • • 2025-12-31 to 2026-01-05: After making a new low, the price did not continue to decline further. Subsequently, on 01-05, a substantially large long bullish candlestick (+5.95%) with extreme volume (historically significant) was formed, decisively reclaiming the MA_5D and MA_10D. This pattern highly resembles the powerful rebound following Panic Selling or the establishment of a Final Low as described by Wyckoff, typically driven by large-scale buying.
     • • 2026-01-06 to Present: Following the high-volume bullish candlestick, the price continued to rise on elevated volume, systematically breaking through resistance from various moving averages. This indicates the market has likely transitioned from the "Accumulation" phase to the initial "Markup" phase.

II. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of January 09, 2026, the underlying asset 513120 recorded an opening price of 1.32, closing price 1.35, volume 4,883,075,600, daily change +1.42%, volume 4,883,075,600, 7-day average volume 3,656,319,259.57, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.34.

1. 1. Key Day Analysis (Based on Wyckoff Principles):
   • • Panic Selling and Demand Absorption Day (2026-01-05): Price surged by 5.95%, volume exploded by 236.78% to 5.47 billion. The VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO reached 3.06, ranking 1st in the historical ranking over the past decade. This is a textbook example of "high-volume breakout from a downtrend." The extreme volume indicates panic selling (supply) was fully absorbed by powerful demand, marking a fundamental reversal in the supply-demand relationship.
   • • Demand-Dominated Up Days: On the subsequent days of 01-07, 01-08, and 01-09, prices continued to rise (+3.60%, +0.83%, +1.42%) with volumes significantly above the 7-day and 14-day averages (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO ranging between 1.33-2.22). This demonstrates the persistence and dominance of demand, indicating healthy upward movement.
   • • Supply Exhaustion Days (2025-12-25/26): Around Christmas, prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with volumes contracting sharply to 710 million and 830 million. The VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO was only 0.17 and 0.20 respectively, ranking 4th and 5th lowest in the historical ranking over the past decade. This indicates supply was nearly exhausted in the final stage of the decline, laying the groundwork for the subsequent reversal.
2. 2. Supply-Demand Transition Point:
   • • The transition point in the supply-demand balance clearly occurred between 2025-12-31 and 2026-01-05. The period before was characterized by low-volume gradual decline (supply gradually exhausting), while the period after was marked by sustained high-volume rally (demand continuously entering). The peak VOLUME_GROWTH of 236.78% on 01-05 (historical ranking 5th) serves as a clear signal for demand initiation.

III. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of January 09, 2026, the underlying asset 513120 recorded an opening price of 1.32, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.32, a 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 1.29, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.50, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 1.24, and an RSI of 63.11.

1. 1. Volatility Levels and Changes:
   • • Sentiment Extreme and Turning Point: On 2025-12-30, HIS_VOLA_7D dropped to an extremely low level of 0.1255, ranking 2nd lowest in the historical ranking over the past decade; simultaneously, PARKINSON_VOL_7D was 0.1579, ranking 6th lowest. This reflects extremely depressed market sentiment and volatility compressed to its limit, a precursor to a potential reversal.
   • • Explosive Volatility Expansion: Entering January 2026, short-term volatility increased sharply. HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_14D reached 1.3525 on 01-07 (historical ranking 9th), and HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_30D reached 1.5917 on 01-07 (historical ranking 16th). This indicates that short-term volatility far exceeded medium-term volatility, signaling rapidly ignited market sentiment, typically accompanying the initiation of a new trend.
2. 2. Overbought/Oversold Status (RSI):
   • • On 2025-12-30, RSI_14 hit a low of 30.37, ranking 20th in the historical ranking over the past decade (i.e., among the 20 most oversold points), confirming the market's extreme oversold condition.
   • • As of 2026-01-09, RSI_14 has rebounded sharply to 63.11, moving out of the oversold zone but not yet entering the overbought zone (>70), suggesting there is still room for upward momentum.

IV. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

1. 1. Momentum Trend:
   • • Extremely Strong Short-Term Momentum: WTD_RETURN (Week-to-Date return) is as high as +13.32%, and MTD_RETURN (Month-to-Date return) is also +13.32%. This indicates very strong short-term upward momentum.
   • • Medium-Term Momentum Turns Positive: QTD_RETURN (Quarter-to-Date return) has significantly narrowed from -22.01% at the end of 2025 to the current +13.32%, achieving a strong V-shaped reversal. YTD (Year-to-Date) is also +13.32%, confirming robust performance since the start of the year.
2. 2. Momentum and Volume-Price Validation:
   • • The strong short- and medium-term momentum (WTD_RETURN, MTD_RETURN, QTD_RETURN) is entirely consistent with the volume-price behavior of a high-volume breakout above moving average resistance, mutually validating the effectiveness of the current uptrend.

V. Smart Money (Large Investor) Behavior Identification

1. 1. Accumulation Behavior Localization:
   • • The accumulation range for large investors can be pinpointed to mid-to-late December 2025. Its characteristics were: price gradually declining to new lows (1.194) but with extremely low volume (multiple days of VOLUME_AVG_*D_RATIO achieving historically low rankings), indicating weakening retail selling pressure while large buying was quietly absorbing at low levels.
   • • The single-day high-volume rebound on 2025-12-19 (+2.17%, volume 4.01 billion) can be viewed as a "test" or "initial show of demand" for the accumulation zone, but it was subsequently suppressed.
2. 2. Initiation and Uplift Behavior:
   • • The extremely high-volume long bullish candlestick on 2026-01-05 is a public declaration of Smart Money action. The volume ratio ranking 1st in the past decade indicates this is beyond the capability of retail behavior. Large investors utilized year-start liquidity to absorb all remaining selling pressure with overwhelming demand and rapidly pushed prices higher, away from their cost zone.
   • • The subsequent sustained high-volume rally (01-06 to 01-09) suggests that major funds have not exited but are continuing to buy and consolidate their position, preventing the price from falling back to their cost zone.
3. 3. Comprehensive Behavior Inference:
   • • Smart Money has completed the full cycle of "Accumulation → Test / Shakeout → Markup". The market is currently in the early stages of the Markup phase.

VI. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

1. 1. Key Price Levels:
   • • Major Resistance Level: 1.415 - 1.417 (High on 2025-11-13). This is the peak of the previous rebound and the starting zone of this decline, constituting strong resistance.
   • • Immediate Support/Resistance Conversion Level: 1.353 (Near the current closing price, also a previous minor consolidation platform).
   • • Major Support Levels:
     • • 1.300 (Psychological integer level and the breakout point from early January).
     • • 1.260 - 1.273 (Consolidation zone from 2025-12-19 to 12-22, also near MA_20D).
     • • 1.194 (Ultimate support, cyclical low).
2. 2. Comprehensive Wyckoff Trading Signals:
   • • Comprehensive Judgment: Bullish. Market structure has shifted from bearish to bullish, volume-price relationships are healthy, Smart Money behavior is clear, and momentum is strong.
   • • Operational Recommendations:
     • • Aggressive Strategy: Consider establishing long positions in batches when the price retraces to the 1.300 - 1.273 support zone and shows signs of stabilization on low volume.
     • • Conservative Strategy: Wait for the price to break through the 1.417 key resistance level with high volume, then enter on a successful retest.
     • • Stop-Loss Level: The stop-loss for any long position should be placed below the 1.194 cyclical low.
   • • Future Validation Points and Risks:
     1. 1. Bullish Validation: Price needs to stay above the 1.300 support and eventually overcome the 1.417 resistance with high volume. Healthy pullbacks should be accompanied by contracting volume.
     2. 2. Bullish Invalidation: If the price falls rapidly back below 1.260 on high volume, it indicates the breakout may have been a "false breakout" (UT/Upthrust), invalidating the uptrend and necessitating a reassessment of market structure.
     3. 3. Close Monitoring: Pay close attention to the volume-price behavior as the price approaches the 1.417 resistance. The appearance of "high-volume stagnation" (high volume but inability to break through the price) is a potential warning signal of distribution.

Conclusion: The in-depth analysis of 513120 based on Wyckoff volume-price principles indicates that this asset completed a significant accumulation process in late December 2025 and initiated a new uptrend driven by Smart Money in early January 2026. The current technical structure has fully turned bullish with strong momentum. A "buy on dips" strategy is recommended, with the core trading range being 1.273-1.417 and using 1.194 as the ultimate risk control floor. Traders should closely monitor volume-price performance near the key 1.417 resistance level to confirm trend continuity.

Disclaimer: This report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness in the content but makes no guarantee regarding its accuracy or completeness. The market involves risks; investment requires caution. Any investment actions based on this report are undertaken at the investor's own risk.

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