20260109 399989 Market Data Review Report (Based on Wyckoff Volume-Price Perspective)

Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report: Product Code 399989

Analysis Date Range: 2025-11-10 to 2026-01-09
Report Generation Date: 2026-01-09

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset 399989 has an opening price of 7312.36, a closing price of 7450.57, a 5-day moving average of 7111.52, a 10-day moving average of 6992.79, a 20-day moving average of 6911.70, a daily change of +2.14%, a weekly change of +10.21%, a monthly change of +10.21%, a quarterly change of +10.21%, and an annual change of +10.21%.

• • Moving Average Arrangement and Trend Judgment: As of the last day of the analysis period (2026-01-09), the price exhibits a clear bullish alignment pattern. The closing price 7450.57 has firmly positioned itself above all key moving averages (MA_5D: 7111.52, MA_20D: 6911.70, MA_60D: 7086.91), and short-term moving averages have crossed above long-term moving averages (e.g., MA_5D crossing above MA_20D and MA_60D). The MA_60D continued its downtrend during the data period but was recently breached by a strong rally, indicating a reversal of the long-term downtrend.
• • Inferred Market Phase: Based on Wyckoff price-volume principles, the market has undergone a complete phase transition from "distribution/decline" to "accumulation," and then to "markup" within the data period.
  • • November 2025: The price declined continuously from around 7316 to 6856 (November 21st). All moving averages were in a bearish alignment, with the price below the moving averages, representing a typical downtrend phase.
  • • December 2025: The price formed a consolidation range between 6760 and 6940. A key signal emerged on December 17-19, where the price experienced a significant rebound with high volume (VOLUME > 770M, far above average) near the range bottom of 6718, closing in the upper half of the range. This behavior aligns with the characteristics of a Wyckoff "accumulation range" — significant demand entering at the end of a decline.
  • • Early January 2026: The price strongly breached the upper boundary of the December consolidation range (approx. 6940) and all moving average resistance with consecutive high-volume long bullish candlesticks (January 5th: +4.91%, January 9th: +2.14%), confirming entry into the "markup phase."

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset 399989 has an opening price of 7312.36, a closing price of 7450.57, a trading volume of 1225804500, a daily change of +2.14%, a trading volume of 1225804500, a 7-day average volume of 853908690.57, and a 7-day volume ratio of 1.44.

• • Key Day Analysis:
  1. 1. Demand-Driven High-Volume Rally (Accumulation and Initiation):
     • • 2025-12-17/18: The price increased by +1.84% and +0.50%, respectively, with trading volume surging to 777M and 1176M, which are 1.71 and 2.30 times their VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO, respectively. This is a clear signal of overwhelming demand entering the market, marking the climax of accumulation activity.
     • • 2026-01-05: On the first trading day of the new year, the price gapped up and surged +4.91% on high volume of 1118M (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO=1.87). This represents a successful breakout from the accumulation range, confirming that demand has fully taken control of the market.
  2. 2. Supply-Driven High-Volume Decline (Panic and Distribution):
     • • 2025-11-20/21: The price declined consecutively by -1.11% and -1.75%, with volumes of 483M and 597M, and VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO of 0.87 and 1.08, respectively. The decline accompanied by expanding volume indicates supply dominance. However, the volume on the 21st did not expand significantly relative to the previous day, suggesting panic selling might be nearing its end.
  3. 3. Demand-Weak Low-Volume Rebound (Weak Rally):
     • • 2025-11-24 to 12-02: The price attempted multiple rebounds at low levels, but the volume consistently remained below various period averages (VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO generally below 1.0). This shows the rebounds lacked follow-through demand, characteristic of weak rallies, setting the stage for subsequent re-tests or further declines.
  4. 4. High-Level Volume-Price Divergence (End-of-Rally Warning):
     • • 2026-01-07 to 01-09: The price continued to make new highs (7227→7294→7450), but volume showed a relatively flat growth pattern of 1007M→1124M→1226M, with VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO decreasing from 1.41 to 1.43. Compared to the volume ratio during the January 5th breakout (1.87), price rose while relative volume weakened, constituting an initial "volume-price divergence." This warns of potentially waning upward momentum and warrants caution for short-term distribution activity.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of January 9, 2026, the underlying asset 399989 has an opening price of 7312.36, a 7-day intraday volatility of 0.21, a 7-day intraday volatility ratio of 1.25, a 7-day historical volatility of 0.36, a 7-day historical volatility ratio of 1.23, and an RSI of 71.62.

• • Volatility Level and Changes: Historical volatility (HIS_VOLA) went through a typical "contraction-expansion" cycle during the data period. In mid-to-late November, HIS_VOLA_7D was at relatively low levels of 0.14-0.21, indicating subdued market sentiment. Entering January, HIS_VOLA_7D surged sharply to high levels of 0.36-0.38 following the trend reversal.
• • Volatility Ratio Signals: A critical volatility expansion signal emerged in early January. The HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_60D (short-term/long-term volatility ratio) soared from 0.6-0.8 in late December to 1.64 on January 5th, remaining at a high level of 1.59 (January 9th). This clearly indicates that short-term volatility has far exceeded its long-term normal level, typically accompanying the accelerated initiation of a trend or extreme sentiment.
• • RSI Sentiment Confirmation: The RSI_14 dropped to the oversold region of 27.69 (November 21st) during the November decline, confirming the pessimism at that time. The current RSI_14 has rapidly climbed to 71.62 (January 9th), entering the overbought region. Combined with the price being at highs after the breakout, this indicates market sentiment has shifted from extreme pessimism to optimism, even exuberance.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

• • Momentum Trend Reversal: Returns across various periods clearly demonstrate a sharp shift in momentum.
  • • QTD_RETURN (Quarter-to-Date Return) performed a V-shaped reversal from -13.56% at the end of December to +10.21% on January 9th, indicating a fundamental change in medium-term momentum strength.
  • • MTD_RETURN (Month-to-Date Return) reached a high of +10.21% in January, demonstrating extremely strong short-term offensive momentum.
  • • The momentum performance mutually verifies the conclusions of volume-price breakout and trend reversal above, confirming that this rally is not an ordinary rebound but a trending move with robust momentum.

5. Large Investor (Smart Money) Behavior Identification

• • Accumulation Behavior: The concentrated high-volume rally on December 17-19, 2025, is the core for identifying smart money activity. At the lows following the prior decline, there was historically significant trading volume (historical ranking data shows VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO rankings were the 6th and 11th highest in the past decade). This is not retail investor behavior but large-scale funds systematically absorbing panic selling, completing bottom accumulation.
• • Breakout and Markup: The gap-up, high-volume long bullish candlestick on January 5, 2026, is the breakout signal indicating smart money has concluded accumulation and begun pushing the price away from their cost zone. During the consecutive markup, despite emerging signs of volume-price divergence, the price resisted deep pullbacks, showing strong control by the dominant capital, with selling pressure being digested in an orderly manner.
• • Potential Distribution Risk (Distribution Alert): At current high levels (overbought RSI, initial volume-price divergence), smart money may engage in tentative distribution or shaking out. If subsequent candlesticks show "high volume over one or several consecutive days with price stagnation or even closing lower," it would be a strong warning signal for the beginning of a distribution phase.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

• • Key Price Levels:
  • • Primary Support:
    1. 1. Breakout Level / New Support: The 6940-7000 zone (upper boundary of the December consolidation range and near the January 5th gap). This area has transformed from resistance into support and is an ideal location for a healthy trend pullback.
    2. 2. Strong Support: The 6800-6850 zone (central area of the December accumulation range and previous multiple-test lows).
  • • Potential Resistance: The current price has broken through all visible highs within the data period. The next technical resistance requires reference to highs from earlier cycles (e.g., October 2025). Immediate resistance is shifted up to 7500-7600 (near the previous strong MA_60D resistance zone).
• • Integrated Wyckoff Events and Trading Signals:
  • • Current Signal: Cautiously Bullish. The market is in a clear markup phase but is short-term overbought and showing initial volume-price divergence.
  • • Operational Recommendations:
    • • Existing Position Holders: Can raise stop-loss levels to below the key support of 6940 to protect most profits. Closely monitor for the appearance of distribution candlestick patterns (high volume with price stagnation) at highs.
    • • Non-Holders (Aggressive): Not advisable to chase the rally. Should wait for a price pullback to the 7000-7100 support zone and observe for entry signals such as low-volume stabilization (supply exhaustion) or resumption of high-volume upward movement (demand return).
    • • Non-Holders (Conservative): Maintain a Wait-and-See Approach. Await market digestion of the current overbought condition and clearer secondary tests or successful retests of support before making decisions.
• • Future Verification Points:
  1. 1. Trend Health Verification: During a price pullback, support holds above the 6940-7000 zone with shrinking volume, followed by a renewed high-volume advance.
  2. 2. Trend Reversal Warning: Price breaks below the 6940 support on high volume and fails to recover quickly, suggesting the current rally may fail, reverting to consolidation or decline.
  3. 3. Distribution Confirmation Signal: In the 7450 and higher zones, consecutive daily candlesticks appear with "high volume, wide range, but a flat or lower close."

Integrated Interpretation of Historical Ranking Data:

• • Corroboration of Volume Extremes: Historical ranking data confirms that the abnormal volume spikes on December 18-19, 2025 (VOLUME_AVG_7D/14D/21D_RATIO all ranked in the top 20 of the past decade) were extremely rare events. This strongly supports the judgment of "large investors conducting concentrated accumulation during this period," rather than ordinary market noise.
• • Volatility Compression Context: Data shows that the PARKINSON_RATIO_7D_60D (short-term/long-term intraday volatility ratio) on November 13-14, 2025, was at historically extreme lows (ranking 16th and 20th), indicating market volatility was compressed to an extreme at the end of the decline. Such compression typically accumulates energy for subsequent trending volatility (whether upward or downward), providing the contextual basis for the volatility explosion and trend initiation in early January.

Disclaimer: This report/interpretation is solely market analysis and research based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice or operational guidance. The author strives for objectivity and fairness in the content but makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Markets involve risks, and investment requires caution. Any investment actions based on this report are undertaken at your own risk.

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