Based on the Wyckoff Method and the quantitative data you provided, I will conduct an in-depth analysis of Product 513120.

Wyckoff Quantitative Analysis Report: Product 513120

Product Code: 513120
Analysis Date Range: 2025-11-10 to 2026-01-08
Report Generation Date: 2026-01-08
Core Conclusion: After experiencing a panic-driven decline, the underlying asset displayed clear signals of supply exhaustion by the end of December, followed by a massive influx of demand in early January 2026, suggesting a potential transition from accumulation to the initial markup phase of a new cycle. The current price has broken above short-term resistance but faces suppression from medium-term moving averages. Synthesizing Wyckoff principles, the market is currently in a transition period from panic/accumulation to initial markup, with strong short-term momentum. It is advisable to seek long entry opportunities on pullbacks to key support levels.

1. Trend Analysis and Market Phase Identification

As of 2026-01-08, Product 513120 data: Open 1.34, Close 1.34, 5D MA 1.25, 10D MA 1.25, 20D MA 1.26, Daily Change 0.91%, Weekly Change 11.81%, Monthly Change 11.81%, Quarterly Change 11.81%, Year-to-Date Change 11.81%.

513120 Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
513120 Price Trend Analysis Chart, including closing price and multiple moving averages
  • • Moving Average Alignment and Price Relationship: At the beginning of the analysis period (November), the price traded below all major moving averages (MA_5D ~ MA_60D), presenting a typical bearish alignment. The price experienced a one-way decline from a high of 1.415 (Nov 13) to a low of 1.194 (Dec 31), a drop of 15.6%. Entering January, the price exhibited a V-shaped rebound. The current closing price (1.335) has closed above the MA_5D (1.2538) and MA_10D (1.2486) for three consecutive days, but remains below the MA_20D (1.25985) and MA_60D (1.3231). The MA_5D has turned upward and formed a golden cross with the MA_10D, but longer-term moving averages are still declining. This indicates that the short-term downtrend has been reversed, but the repair of the medium-term trend requires more time.
  • • Inferred Market Phase: Combining price action and Wyckoff theory:
    • • Mid-November to late December 2025: The price declined with intermittent high-volume drops (e.g., Nov 21), representing the decline phase following distribution. By late December (especially Dec 29-31), extremely low volume and long lower shadows appeared, entering a panic selling or final exhaustion of supply phase. This marks the beginning of the accumulation zone in Wyckoff theory.
    • • Early January 2026 to present: A signature high-volume long white candlestick appeared (Jan 5, volume +236.78%, price +5.95%), and the price moved away from the lows. This behavior aligns with the "automatic rally" or "secondary test" following "panic selling," indicating that the accumulation phase may have concluded, and the market is attempting to enter the initial stages of the markup phase. The current price advance can be viewed as a breakout test of the previous downtrend channel.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Supply-Demand Dynamics

As of 2026-01-08, Product 513120 data: Open 1.34, Close 1.34, Volume 4369276500, Daily Change 0.91%, Volume 4369276500, 7-Day Avg Volume 3151155793.71, 7-Day Volume Ratio 1.39

513120 Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
513120 Volume-Price Relationship Line Chart and Historical Ranking Analysis
  • • Key Turning Point Analysis:
    • • Supply Dominance (High-Volume Decline): 2025-11-21, price fell 3.49% on a volume of 4.948B, with a VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO of 0.94, indicating heavy selling pressure and confirming expanding supply during the downtrend.
    • • Demand Exhaustion (Low-Volume Rebound): Multiple minor rebounds in early-mid December 2025 generally occurred on volume below various period averages (e.g., Dec 2, VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO only 0.49), showing insufficient demand and unsustainable rallies.
    • • Supply Exhaustion (Extremely Low Volume): 2025-12-25/26, volume was only 711M and 833M respectively, hitting recent absolute lows. Their VOLUME_AVG_60D_RATIO was as low as 0.1717 and 0.2038, ranking 4th and 5th lowest in the past 10 years' history. This clearly reveals that selling willingness has hit rock bottom, a classic characteristic of the Wyckoff "accumulation range."
    • • Demand Dominance (High-Volume Advance): 2026-01-05, volume surged 236.78% to 5.471B, and the price rose 5.95%. The WEEK_MAX_VOLUME_AVG_7D_RATIO was as high as 3.056, ranking 1st in the past 10 years, while WEEK_MAX_PCT_CHANGE ranked 8th. This is a clear signal of demand entering the market with overwhelming force. Subsequent sessions on Jan 6 and 7 continued the high-volume advance (VOLUME_AVG_14D_RATIO > 1.5), confirming the authenticity and sustainability of the demand.
  • • Supply-Demand Transition Conclusion: The volume-price relationship clearly illustrates the complete transition chain: "expanding supply → insufficient demand → exhausting supply → demand explosion." The recent high volume is a decisive demand signal, suggesting that large capital may have completed low-level accumulation and begun to drive prices higher.

3. Volatility and Market Sentiment

As of 2026-01-08, Product 513120 data: Open 1.34, 7-Day Intraday Volatility 0.30, 7-Day Intraday Vol Ratio 1.25, 7-Day Historical Volatility 0.53, 7-Day Historical Vol Ratio 1.34, RSI 60.46

513120 Historical Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
513120 Historical Volatility Analysis Chart and Historical Ranking Data
  • • Volatility Compression and Expansion: At the tail end of the decline in late December, volatility was compressed to extremely low levels. On 2025-12-30, HIS_VOLA_7D was as low as 0.1255, ranking 2nd lowest in the past 10 years; PARKINSON_VOL_7D was 0.1579, ranking 6th. This volatility "squeeze" often precedes a significant directional breakout. Subsequently, in early January, short-term volatility expanded sharply, with HIS_VOLA_RATIO_7D_30D reaching 1.59-1.57 on Jan 7-8, ranking 16th-20th in the past 10 years, confirming the start of a trending move.
  • • Market Sentiment Indicators: RSI_14 touched 30.37 on Dec 30, entering an extremely oversold region (historical rank 20th), reaching a pessimistic extreme and providing room for a rebound. The RSI has now recovered to 60.46, moving out of oversold territory, indicating significantly improved sentiment without yet reaching overbought levels, leaving room for further price appreciation.

4. Relative Strength and Momentum Performance

  • • Return Analysis: Short-term momentum is exceptionally strong. WTD_RETURN (Weekly Return) is as high as 11.81%, and MTD_RETURN (Monthly Return) is also 11.81%. This indicates the underlying has achieved significant outperformance in the most recent week (early January), demonstrating powerful short-term bullish momentum.
  • • Medium-to-Long Term Comparison: QTD_RETURN (Quarterly Return) remains 11.81%. However, combined with historical data, this represents a violent rebound after a significant decline in Q4 (-22.01% as of Dec 31). YTD (Year-to-Date) is also 11.81%, indicating this rebound has almost completely recovered the year's losses. The momentum structure shows that the short-term strong rebound has effectively reversed the medium-term downtrend weakness.

5. Large Investor ("Smart Money") Behavior Identification

Based on the above analysis, the operational intent of large investors can be inferred:

  1. 1. Stealthy Accumulation: During the grinding decline and low-volume行情 in mid-to-late December, large investors likely accumulated at low prices amidst panic and liquidity exhaustion, corresponding to Wyckoff's "accumulation" phase. The extremely low volume ratio rankings serve as evidence.
  2. 2. Initiating the Markup: The historically high-volume long white candlestick on Jan 5 represents the public manifestation of smart money action. Pushing prices higher with such massive volume in a supply-exhausted environment is not retail behavior. This aligns with the characteristic of "accumulation ending, demand beginning to dominate." The subsequent sustained high-volume advance indicates that dominant capital has long-term intentions, aiming to quickly move away from the cost area and attract market followers.
  3. 3. Behavior Summary: Large investors successfully utilized year-end pessimism and liquidity contraction to complete accumulation. At the beginning of the new year, leveraging improved market sentiment, they rapidly marked up prices with substantial capital, completing the transition from "accumulation" to "initial markup." The current market structure is dominated by large-scale demand.

6. Support/Resistance Level Analysis and Trading Signals

513120 Support Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
513120 Support Resistance Level Analysis Chart and Trading Signals
  • • Key Support Levels:
    • • S1 (Primary Support): 1.194 - The low on 2025-12-31, the endpoint of panic selling and the starting point of this rebound. This is the final stop-loss level.
    • • S2 (Secondary Support): 1.265 / 1.277 - The upper edge of the candlestick bodies on 2026-01-05/06 and the breakout gap area, also the launchpad for the recent high-volume advance, which should offer strong support.
  • • Key Resistance Levels:
    • • R1 (Initial Resistance): 1.354 - The high on 2026-01-08, also the recent rebound high.
    • • R2 (Core Resistance): 1.417 - The previous high on 2025-11-13, marking the lower boundary of the prior distribution range. A decisive break above this level would thoroughly confirm a medium-to-long-term trend reversal.
    • • R3 (Dynamic Resistance): MA_60D ≈ 1.323 - The current 60-day moving average, a crucial medium-term trend divider. The price is approaching this level and faces a test.
  • • Synthesized Wyckoff Events and Trading Signals:
    • • Events That Have Occurred: "Panic Selling" (low price & volume at year-end) followed by "Massive Demand Entry" (Jan 5), forming a bullish Spring (or Panic Selling) pattern.
    • • Current Signal: Bullish. The market structure has shifted to short-term bullish dominance.
    • • Operational Recommendations:
      • • Entry Strategy: Chasing the high is not advised. Await a price pullback to the secondary support zone 1.277 - 1.265. Look for signs of low-volume stabilization (e.g., small-bodied candles, shrinking volume) before establishing long positions in batches.
      • • Stop-Loss Placement: Strictly set below the primary support level 1.194.
      • • Target Outlook: The first target is the core resistance level 1.417. If breached, higher targets can be considered.
  • • Future Validation Points:
    1. 1. Confirm Demand Sustainability: During subsequent price corrections, volume should contract significantly (lack of supply); on renewed advances, volume should expand moderately (healthy demand).
    2. 2. Test Key Resistance: Observe price behavior near MA_60D (1.323) and the previous high of 1.417. Signs of high-volume stagnation or long upper shadows would warrant caution for short-term distribution risk.
    3. 3. Healthy Volatility: Volatility during the advance should exhibit healthy expansion, not uncontrolled spikes, which often signal the end of a move.

Disclaimer: This report is based on historical data and Wyckoff volume-price principles. All conclusions are derived from data analysis and do not constitute investment advice. The market involves risks, and investment requires caution.

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